Recent meteorological forecasts for Istanbul on September 3 indicate a peak daytime temperature near 26–27°C under mostly sunny conditions, northeasterly winds of 10–15 mph, and minimal cloud cover, aligning with the market's strong preference for 26°C. Official model consensus from sources like GFS data and local observations shows afternoon highs stabilizing in this range, consistent with typical early-September climatology where daily maxima average around 27°C. Low precipitation risk and stable atmospheric pressure further reduce upside potential to 28°C or above, while overnight lows near 21°C limit any late-day rebound. Traders appear to weigh these verified model runs and real-time station readings heavily, though minor variations in exact peak timing or microclimate effects at official measurement sites introduce modest uncertainty reflected in the secondary 27°C probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 3?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 3?
26°C 77%
27°C 18%
25°C 7%
28°C 2%
$12,880 Vol.
$12,880 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
7%
26°C
77%
27°C
18%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 77%
27°C 18%
25°C 7%
28°C 2%
$12,880 Vol.
$12,880 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
21°C or below
$299 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$459 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$497 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$939 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,338 Vol.
7%
26°C
$4,554 Vol.
77%
27°C
$1,151 Vol.
18%
28°C
$555 Vol.
2%
29°C
$587 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$336 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$166 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts for Istanbul on September 3 indicate a peak daytime temperature near 26–27°C under mostly sunny conditions, northeasterly winds of 10–15 mph, and minimal cloud cover, aligning with the market's strong preference for 26°C. Official model consensus from sources like GFS data and local observations shows afternoon highs stabilizing in this range, consistent with typical early-September climatology where daily maxima average around 27°C. Low precipitation risk and stable atmospheric pressure further reduce upside potential to 28°C or above, while overnight lows near 21°C limit any late-day rebound. Traders appear to weigh these verified model runs and real-time station readings heavily, though minor variations in exact peak timing or microclimate effects at official measurement sites introduce modest uncertainty reflected in the secondary 27°C probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$12,880End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts for Istanbul on September 3 indicate a peak daytime temperature near 26–27°C under mostly sunny conditions, northeasterly winds of 10–15 mph, and minimal cloud cover, aligning with the market's strong preference for 26°C. Official model consensus from sources like GFS data and local observations shows afternoon highs stabilizing in this range, consistent with typical early-September climatology where daily maxima average around 27°C. Low precipitation risk and stable atmospheric pressure further reduce upside potential to 28°C or above, while overnight lows near 21°C limit any late-day rebound. Traders appear to weigh these verified model runs and real-time station readings heavily, though minor variations in exact peak timing or microclimate effects at official measurement sites introduce modest uncertainty reflected in the secondary 27°C probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,880End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological forecasts for Istanbul on September 3 indicate a peak daytime temperature near 26–27°C under mostly sunny conditions, northeasterly winds of 10–15 mph, and minimal cloud cover, aligning with the market's strong preference for 26°C. Official model consensus from sources like GFS data and local observations shows afternoon highs stabilizing in this range, consistent with typical early-September climatology where daily maxima average around 27°C. Low precipitation risk and stable atmospheric pressure further reduce upside potential to 28°C or above, while overnight lows near 21°C limit any late-day rebound. Traders appear to weigh these verified model runs and real-time station readings heavily, though minor variations in exact peak timing or microclimate effects at official measurement sites introduce modest uncertainty reflected in the secondary 27°C probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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