**Trader consensus heavily favors a 25°C low for Hong Kong on September 3, 2026, at 99.1% implied probability.** Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and regional station data indicate overnight and early-morning minima clustered around 25–26°C, with HK Observatory readings near 25.9°C shortly after 06:00 and other sites recording 24.7–26.2°C since midnight under northwest winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale. Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and moderate humidity (55–85%) have limited radiative cooling, consistent with climatological September norms and the influence of distant tropical systems like Saola without a stronger cold surge. Model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and local guidance projects no significant deviation below this threshold. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted intensification of onshore flow or heavier nocturnal precipitation that enhances evaporative cooling, though current atmospheric conditions and steering patterns make such outcomes unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 3?
25°C 99.0%
24°C 2%
23°C <1%
21°C <1%
$19,538 Vol.
$19,538 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
99%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.0%
24°C 2%
23°C <1%
21°C <1%
$19,538 Vol.
$19,538 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
20°C or below
$469 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$463 Vol.
1%
22°C
$787 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,539 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,896 Vol.
2%
25°C
$3,226 Vol.
99%
26°C
$5,944 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,301 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,396 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,047 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$470 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 25°C low for Hong Kong on September 3, 2026, at 99.1% implied probability.** Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and regional station data indicate overnight and early-morning minima clustered around 25–26°C, with HK Observatory readings near 25.9°C shortly after 06:00 and other sites recording 24.7–26.2°C since midnight under northwest winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale. Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and moderate humidity (55–85%) have limited radiative cooling, consistent with climatological September norms and the influence of distant tropical systems like Saola without a stronger cold surge. Model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and local guidance projects no significant deviation below this threshold. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted intensification of onshore flow or heavier nocturnal precipitation that enhances evaporative cooling, though current atmospheric conditions and steering patterns make such outcomes unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$19,538End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 25°C low for Hong Kong on September 3, 2026, at 99.1% implied probability.** Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and regional station data indicate overnight and early-morning minima clustered around 25–26°C, with HK Observatory readings near 25.9°C shortly after 06:00 and other sites recording 24.7–26.2°C since midnight under northwest winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale. Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and moderate humidity (55–85%) have limited radiative cooling, consistent with climatological September norms and the influence of distant tropical systems like Saola without a stronger cold surge. Model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and local guidance projects no significant deviation below this threshold. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted intensification of onshore flow or heavier nocturnal precipitation that enhances evaporative cooling, though current atmospheric conditions and steering patterns make such outcomes unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$19,538End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors a 25°C low for Hong Kong on September 3, 2026, at 99.1% implied probability.** Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and regional station data indicate overnight and early-morning minima clustered around 25–26°C, with HK Observatory readings near 25.9°C shortly after 06:00 and other sites recording 24.7–26.2°C since midnight under northwest winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale. Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and moderate humidity (55–85%) have limited radiative cooling, consistent with climatological September norms and the influence of distant tropical systems like Saola without a stronger cold surge. Model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and local guidance projects no significant deviation below this threshold. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted intensification of onshore flow or heavier nocturnal precipitation that enhances evaporative cooling, though current atmospheric conditions and steering patterns make such outcomes unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions