Forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and other agencies point to northwest winds of 4–5 Beaufort with extensive cloud cover and scattered showers on September 4, which should cap daytime heating and keep the maximum near 28–30 °C. These conditions arise from a broad trough and lingering moisture across the northern South China Sea, reducing insolation compared with clearer anticyclonic setups typical for early September. Historical analogs show similar patterns often produce highs 1–2 °C below seasonal averages when persistent low-level convergence and moderate winds enhance mixing. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes against possible breaks in cloud that could allow brief warming, while lower probabilities for 31 °C or above reflect the consensus on suppressed radiative heating. Updated model runs and official briefings tomorrow morning will refine the precise peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
29°C 36%
30°C 34%
31°C 14%
28°C 13%
NEW
$20,773 Vol.
NEW
$20,773 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
13%
29°C
36%
30°C
34%
31°C
14%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 36%
30°C 34%
31°C 14%
28°C 13%
NEW
$20,773 Vol.
NEW
$20,773 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
$10,859 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$214 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$802 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,103 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,654 Vol.
6%
28°C
$2,058 Vol.
13%
29°C
$1,468 Vol.
36%
30°C
$789 Vol.
34%
31°C
$868 Vol.
14%
32°C
$528 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$430 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and other agencies point to northwest winds of 4–5 Beaufort with extensive cloud cover and scattered showers on September 4, which should cap daytime heating and keep the maximum near 28–30 °C. These conditions arise from a broad trough and lingering moisture across the northern South China Sea, reducing insolation compared with clearer anticyclonic setups typical for early September. Historical analogs show similar patterns often produce highs 1–2 °C below seasonal averages when persistent low-level convergence and moderate winds enhance mixing. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes against possible breaks in cloud that could allow brief warming, while lower probabilities for 31 °C or above reflect the consensus on suppressed radiative heating. Updated model runs and official briefings tomorrow morning will refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$20,773End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and other agencies point to northwest winds of 4–5 Beaufort with extensive cloud cover and scattered showers on September 4, which should cap daytime heating and keep the maximum near 28–30 °C. These conditions arise from a broad trough and lingering moisture across the northern South China Sea, reducing insolation compared with clearer anticyclonic setups typical for early September. Historical analogs show similar patterns often produce highs 1–2 °C below seasonal averages when persistent low-level convergence and moderate winds enhance mixing. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes against possible breaks in cloud that could allow brief warming, while lower probabilities for 31 °C or above reflect the consensus on suppressed radiative heating. Updated model runs and official briefings tomorrow morning will refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,773End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and other agencies point to northwest winds of 4–5 Beaufort with extensive cloud cover and scattered showers on September 4, which should cap daytime heating and keep the maximum near 28–30 °C. These conditions arise from a broad trough and lingering moisture across the northern South China Sea, reducing insolation compared with clearer anticyclonic setups typical for early September. Historical analogs show similar patterns often produce highs 1–2 °C below seasonal averages when persistent low-level convergence and moderate winds enhance mixing. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes against possible breaks in cloud that could allow brief warming, while lower probabilities for 31 °C or above reflect the consensus on suppressed radiative heating. Updated model runs and official briefings tomorrow morning will refine the precise peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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