Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a high near 95–98°F in Austin on September 4, with southerly flow maintaining high humidity and a 30 percent chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. These storms could limit peak heating through increased cloud cover and localized cooling, while clearer intervals might allow readings to reach the mid- or upper 90s. The 93.8°F 1991–2020 climatological average for the date provides context for the current warm anomaly, though the modest precipitation risk introduces the main uncertainty differentiating the tightly bunched 92–95°F market outcomes. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings through early Friday will clarify whether convective timing suppresses or permits the higher end of the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 4?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 4?
94-95°F 31%
92-93°F 28%
90-91°F 18%
96-97°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
87°F or below
1%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
28%
94-95°F
31%
96-97°F
12%
98-99°F
5%
100-101°F
1%
102-103°F
<1%
104-105°F
<1%
106°F or higher
<1%
94-95°F 31%
92-93°F 28%
90-91°F 18%
96-97°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
87°F or below
$369 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$657 Vol.
3%
90-91°F
$1,097 Vol.
18%
92-93°F
$792 Vol.
28%
94-95°F
$591 Vol.
31%
96-97°F
$875 Vol.
12%
98-99°F
$111 Vol.
5%
100-101°F
$128 Vol.
1%
102-103°F
$182 Vol.
<1%
104-105°F
$382 Vol.
<1%
106°F or higher
$351 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a high near 95–98°F in Austin on September 4, with southerly flow maintaining high humidity and a 30 percent chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. These storms could limit peak heating through increased cloud cover and localized cooling, while clearer intervals might allow readings to reach the mid- or upper 90s. The 93.8°F 1991–2020 climatological average for the date provides context for the current warm anomaly, though the modest precipitation risk introduces the main uncertainty differentiating the tightly bunched 92–95°F market outcomes. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings through early Friday will clarify whether convective timing suppresses or permits the higher end of the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,535End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a high near 95–98°F in Austin on September 4, with southerly flow maintaining high humidity and a 30 percent chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. These storms could limit peak heating through increased cloud cover and localized cooling, while clearer intervals might allow readings to reach the mid- or upper 90s. The 93.8°F 1991–2020 climatological average for the date provides context for the current warm anomaly, though the modest precipitation risk introduces the main uncertainty differentiating the tightly bunched 92–95°F market outcomes. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings through early Friday will clarify whether convective timing suppresses or permits the higher end of the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,535End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a high near 95–98°F in Austin on September 4, with southerly flow maintaining high humidity and a 30 percent chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. These storms could limit peak heating through increased cloud cover and localized cooling, while clearer intervals might allow readings to reach the mid- or upper 90s. The 93.8°F 1991–2020 climatological average for the date provides context for the current warm anomaly, though the modest precipitation risk introduces the main uncertainty differentiating the tightly bunched 92–95°F market outcomes. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings through early Friday will clarify whether convective timing suppresses or permits the higher end of the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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