Strong El Niño conditions, now strengthening rapidly with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.0 °C and over 90% odds of a very strong event through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver suppressing U.S. tornado activity this September. El Niño typically strengthens the subtropical jet while altering wind shear and instability patterns that reduce favorable environments for supercells, particularly in transitional fall months when climatological averages hover near 66–74 tornadoes. Recent model consensus and historical analogs point to below-normal or near-normal totals, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 25–74 range. Key uncertainties include potential late-month tropical cyclone remnants or localized shear enhancements that could push counts higher, alongside ongoing drought influences across the Plains. Updated NOAA and SPC guidance through mid-September will provide the next critical data points for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS Tornadoes in September 2026
US Tornadoes in September 2026
25 - 49 49%
75 - 124 48%
50 - 74 48%
Under 25 41%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
41%
25 - 49
49%
50 - 74
48%
75 - 124
48%
125 or more
21%
25 - 49 49%
75 - 124 48%
50 - 74 48%
Under 25 41%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
$0 Vol.
41%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
49%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
48%
75 - 124
$0 Vol.
48%
125 or more
$0 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong El Niño conditions, now strengthening rapidly with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.0 °C and over 90% odds of a very strong event through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver suppressing U.S. tornado activity this September. El Niño typically strengthens the subtropical jet while altering wind shear and instability patterns that reduce favorable environments for supercells, particularly in transitional fall months when climatological averages hover near 66–74 tornadoes. Recent model consensus and historical analogs point to below-normal or near-normal totals, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 25–74 range. Key uncertainties include potential late-month tropical cyclone remnants or localized shear enhancements that could push counts higher, alongside ongoing drought influences across the Plains. Updated NOAA and SPC guidance through mid-September will provide the next critical data points for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong El Niño conditions, now strengthening rapidly with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.0 °C and over 90% odds of a very strong event through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver suppressing U.S. tornado activity this September. El Niño typically strengthens the subtropical jet while altering wind shear and instability patterns that reduce favorable environments for supercells, particularly in transitional fall months when climatological averages hover near 66–74 tornadoes. Recent model consensus and historical analogs point to below-normal or near-normal totals, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 25–74 range. Key uncertainties include potential late-month tropical cyclone remnants or localized shear enhancements that could push counts higher, alongside ongoing drought influences across the Plains. Updated NOAA and SPC guidance through mid-September will provide the next critical data points for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, now strengthening rapidly with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.0 °C and over 90% odds of a very strong event through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver suppressing U.S. tornado activity this September. El Niño typically strengthens the subtropical jet while altering wind shear and instability patterns that reduce favorable environments for supercells, particularly in transitional fall months when climatological averages hover near 66–74 tornadoes. Recent model consensus and historical analogs point to below-normal or near-normal totals, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 25–74 range. Key uncertainties include potential late-month tropical cyclone remnants or localized shear enhancements that could push counts higher, alongside ongoing drought influences across the Plains. Updated NOAA and SPC guidance through mid-September will provide the next critical data points for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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