Recent seismic monitoring from the USGS shows typical global activity, with a 6.2-magnitude event striking the South Sandwich Islands region on September 2 and multiple 5.5–5.9 events in Indonesia, Alaska, Mexico, and New Zealand over the prior week. Subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire and mid-ocean ridges account for the majority of M6+ quakes due to plate convergence rates of several centimeters per year, consistent with historical averages of roughly 15–20 such events monthly worldwide. Short-term forecasts remain uncertain because aftershock sequences and stress transfer can elevate near-term probabilities in active areas, while quiet periods elsewhere lower them. Traders should watch USGS real-time catalogs and any new aftershock data through late September for shifts in implied regional odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhere will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?
Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?
NEW
Oct 3, 2026
Indonesia
51%
Japan
53%
Chile
50%
Mexico
51%
United States
42%
Philippines
51%
Peru
51%
$1 Vol.
Indonesia
$0 Vol.
51%
Japan
$0 Vol.
53%
Chile
$0 Vol.
50%
Mexico
$1 Vol.
51%
United States
$0 Vol.
42%
Philippines
$0 Vol.
51%
Peru
$0 Vol.
51%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Recent seismic monitoring from the USGS shows typical global activity, with a 6.2-magnitude event striking the South Sandwich Islands region on September 2 and multiple 5.5–5.9 events in Indonesia, Alaska, Mexico, and New Zealand over the prior week. Subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire and mid-ocean ridges account for the majority of M6+ quakes due to plate convergence rates of several centimeters per year, consistent with historical averages of roughly 15–20 such events monthly worldwide. Short-term forecasts remain uncertain because aftershock sequences and stress transfer can elevate near-term probabilities in active areas, while quiet periods elsewhere lower them. Traders should watch USGS real-time catalogs and any new aftershock data through late September for shifts in implied regional odds.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 7:04 PM ET
Volume
$1End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 7:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Recent seismic monitoring from the USGS shows typical global activity, with a 6.2-magnitude event striking the South Sandwich Islands region on September 2 and multiple 5.5–5.9 events in Indonesia, Alaska, Mexico, and New Zealand over the prior week. Subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire and mid-ocean ridges account for the majority of M6+ quakes due to plate convergence rates of several centimeters per year, consistent with historical averages of roughly 15–20 such events monthly worldwide. Short-term forecasts remain uncertain because aftershock sequences and stress transfer can elevate near-term probabilities in active areas, while quiet periods elsewhere lower them. Traders should watch USGS real-time catalogs and any new aftershock data through late September for shifts in implied regional odds.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered. If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. If it no longer qualifies at that time, this market will remain open until another qualifying earthquake is reported or the market's end date is reached, whichever comes first.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 4, 2026 and will resolve based on the preferred magnitude, country attribution, and timestamp of the event as of the end of its revision period (per the revision rules above), provided that revision period falls within the extension window. If the revision period would extend beyond the extension window, this market will resolve based on the data available at the end of the extension period. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources.
If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 7:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent seismic monitoring from the USGS shows typical global activity, with a 6.2-magnitude event striking the South Sandwich Islands region on September 2 and multiple 5.5–5.9 events in Indonesia, Alaska, Mexico, and New Zealand over the prior week. Subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire and mid-ocean ridges account for the majority of M6+ quakes due to plate convergence rates of several centimeters per year, consistent with historical averages of roughly 15–20 such events monthly worldwide. Short-term forecasts remain uncertain because aftershock sequences and stress transfer can elevate near-term probabilities in active areas, while quiet periods elsewhere lower them. Traders should watch USGS real-time catalogs and any new aftershock data through late September for shifts in implied regional odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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