With roughly half of August 2026 remaining, trader consensus clusters around the historical average of 81 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, reflected in the narrow 80-99 lead at 23.5% implied probability. Elevated 2026 activity driven by persistent instability and a favorable jet stream earlier in the year has kept higher bins like 120-139 competitive. Key differentiating factors include the ongoing La Niña-to-El Niño transition, which typically weakens the subtropical jet and reduces organized severe setups; current moisture profiles and convective available potential energy across the Plains and Midwest; and steering patterns that could favor or suppress late-month outbreaks. NOAA and SPC monitoring of model consensus on these variables will refine counts before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
100–119 20%
60-79 17%
40–59 16%
140-169 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<40
11%
40–59
14%
60-79
19%
80-99
24%
100–119
20%
120–139
20%
140-169
15%
170–199
10%
200+
4%
100–119 20%
60-79 17%
40–59 16%
140-169 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<40
$136 Vol.
11%
40–59
$85 Vol.
14%
60-79
$60 Vol.
19%
80-99
$52 Vol.
24%
100–119
$62 Vol.
20%
120–139
$52 Vol.
20%
140-169
$96 Vol.
15%
170–199
$125 Vol.
10%
200+
$205 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.With roughly half of August 2026 remaining, trader consensus clusters around the historical average of 81 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, reflected in the narrow 80-99 lead at 23.5% implied probability. Elevated 2026 activity driven by persistent instability and a favorable jet stream earlier in the year has kept higher bins like 120-139 competitive. Key differentiating factors include the ongoing La Niña-to-El Niño transition, which typically weakens the subtropical jet and reduces organized severe setups; current moisture profiles and convective available potential energy across the Plains and Midwest; and steering patterns that could favor or suppress late-month outbreaks. NOAA and SPC monitoring of model consensus on these variables will refine counts before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$874End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.With roughly half of August 2026 remaining, trader consensus clusters around the historical average of 81 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, reflected in the narrow 80-99 lead at 23.5% implied probability. Elevated 2026 activity driven by persistent instability and a favorable jet stream earlier in the year has kept higher bins like 120-139 competitive. Key differentiating factors include the ongoing La Niña-to-El Niño transition, which typically weakens the subtropical jet and reduces organized severe setups; current moisture profiles and convective available potential energy across the Plains and Midwest; and steering patterns that could favor or suppress late-month outbreaks. NOAA and SPC monitoring of model consensus on these variables will refine counts before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$874End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With roughly half of August 2026 remaining, trader consensus clusters around the historical average of 81 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, reflected in the narrow 80-99 lead at 23.5% implied probability. Elevated 2026 activity driven by persistent instability and a favorable jet stream earlier in the year has kept higher bins like 120-139 competitive. Key differentiating factors include the ongoing La Niña-to-El Niño transition, which typically weakens the subtropical jet and reduces organized severe setups; current moisture profiles and convective available potential energy across the Plains and Midwest; and steering patterns that could favor or suppress late-month outbreaks. NOAA and SPC monitoring of model consensus on these variables will refine counts before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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