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icon for How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?

How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?

icon for How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?

How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?

Aug 25

Aug 25

Sep 1

Sep 1

Aug 25

Aug 25

Sep 1

Sep 1

10 or more states 44%

5-6 states 38%

7-9 states 38%

0 states 26%

Polymarket
NEW

10 or more states 44%

5-6 states 38%

7-9 states 38%

0 states 26%

Polymarket
NEW

0 states

$1 Vol.

26%

1-2 states

$0 Vol.

26%

3-4 states

$1 Vol.

26%

5-6 states

$0 Vol.

38%

7-9 states

$1 Vol.

38%

10 or more states

$0 Vol.

44%

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent degradations across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Upper Midwest, driven by persistent high pressure, above-normal temperatures, and limited rainfall, have expanded D3-D4 conditions in states including Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Idaho. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor (valid August 25) shows D4 in roughly seven states amid 47.5% national drought coverage. A developing strong El Niño raises the prospect of altered fall precipitation patterns that could limit further expansion or bring localized relief, while flash-drought dynamics and model spread introduce uncertainty for the September 1 map. The next official update from NOAA and partners will incorporate any late-August convective changes before resolution.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.

Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.

Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.

Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.

The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$3
End Date
Sep 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent degradations across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Upper Midwest, driven by persistent high pressure, above-normal temperatures, and limited rainfall, have expanded D3-D4 conditions in states including Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Idaho. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor (valid August 25) shows D4 in roughly seven states amid 47.5% national drought coverage. A developing strong El Niño raises the prospect of altered fall precipitation patterns that could limit further expansion or bring localized relief, while flash-drought dynamics and model spread introduce uncertainty for the September 1 map. The next official update from NOAA and partners will incorporate any late-August convective changes before resolution.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.

Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.

Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.

Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.

The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$3
End Date
Sep 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "10 or more states" at 45%, followed by "5-6 states" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?" is "10 or more states" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5-6 states" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.