Recent degradations from persistent high pressure, above-normal temperatures, and precipitation shortfalls have expanded D4 areas across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Upper Midwest, and parts of the Intermountain West as of the August 25, 2026 U.S. Drought Monitor map. Soil moisture percentiles, streamflow, and groundwater indicators show severe deficits in states such as Idaho, New Mexico, Nebraska, Arkansas, and Mississippi, with localized D4 expansion into northeastern Idaho and adjacent areas. Monsoonal convection has eased conditions in parts of the Southwest, while flash drought dynamics and evapotranspiration rates under heat stress differentiate outcomes between 7-9 states versus 10 or more, depending on whether additional Plains or western states cross D4 thresholds before the next weekly assessment. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow uncertainty in official multi-indicator synthesis.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?
0 states <1%
1-2 states <1%
3-4 states <1%
5-6 states <1%
$365 Vol.
$365 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
0 states
1%
1-2 states
1%
3-4 states
1%
5-6 states
1%
7-9 states
50%
10 or more states
52%
0 states <1%
1-2 states <1%
3-4 states <1%
5-6 states <1%
$365 Vol.
$365 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
0 states
$82 Vol.
1%
1-2 states
$75 Vol.
1%
3-4 states
$76 Vol.
1%
5-6 states
$76 Vol.
1%
7-9 states
$41 Vol.
50%
10 or more states
$15 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent degradations from persistent high pressure, above-normal temperatures, and precipitation shortfalls have expanded D4 areas across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Upper Midwest, and parts of the Intermountain West as of the August 25, 2026 U.S. Drought Monitor map. Soil moisture percentiles, streamflow, and groundwater indicators show severe deficits in states such as Idaho, New Mexico, Nebraska, Arkansas, and Mississippi, with localized D4 expansion into northeastern Idaho and adjacent areas. Monsoonal convection has eased conditions in parts of the Southwest, while flash drought dynamics and evapotranspiration rates under heat stress differentiate outcomes between 7-9 states versus 10 or more, depending on whether additional Plains or western states cross D4 thresholds before the next weekly assessment. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow uncertainty in official multi-indicator synthesis.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$365End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent degradations from persistent high pressure, above-normal temperatures, and precipitation shortfalls have expanded D4 areas across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Upper Midwest, and parts of the Intermountain West as of the August 25, 2026 U.S. Drought Monitor map. Soil moisture percentiles, streamflow, and groundwater indicators show severe deficits in states such as Idaho, New Mexico, Nebraska, Arkansas, and Mississippi, with localized D4 expansion into northeastern Idaho and adjacent areas. Monsoonal convection has eased conditions in parts of the Southwest, while flash drought dynamics and evapotranspiration rates under heat stress differentiate outcomes between 7-9 states versus 10 or more, depending on whether additional Plains or western states cross D4 thresholds before the next weekly assessment. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow uncertainty in official multi-indicator synthesis.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$365End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent degradations from persistent high pressure, above-normal temperatures, and precipitation shortfalls have expanded D4 areas across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Upper Midwest, and parts of the Intermountain West as of the August 25, 2026 U.S. Drought Monitor map. Soil moisture percentiles, streamflow, and groundwater indicators show severe deficits in states such as Idaho, New Mexico, Nebraska, Arkansas, and Mississippi, with localized D4 expansion into northeastern Idaho and adjacent areas. Monsoonal convection has eased conditions in parts of the Southwest, while flash drought dynamics and evapotranspiration rates under heat stress differentiate outcomes between 7-9 states versus 10 or more, depending on whether additional Plains or western states cross D4 thresholds before the next weekly assessment. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow uncertainty in official multi-indicator synthesis.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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