**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature near 25–26°C in Shanghai on August 16, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 53% for 26°C and 41% for 25°C.** Late-summer conditions in this subtropical coastal city feature persistent high humidity and urban heat retention, keeping overnight lows typically in the mid- to upper-20s°C. Recent numerical weather prediction runs (including GFS and regional models) show a relatively stable air mass with light winds and possible scattered showers or thundershowers, which can modestly suppress daytime maxima while limiting nocturnal cooling. Official extended guidance lists expected lows around 25.5–26°C (78°F range), consistent with climatological August averages near 25–26°C but tempered by current cloud cover and moisture. Shifts in the latest model cycles or unexpected clearing could nudge the minimum toward 25°C or hold it at 26°C, explaining the tight probability split. Lower-probability outcomes (24°C or below, or 27°C+) remain unlikely without a significant change in steering patterns or stronger precipitation, which current data do not support. Traders are weighting the most recent deterministic and ensemble guidance, which favors the narrow 25–26°C band ahead of the day’s resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 16?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 16?
26°C 48%
25°C 41%
27°C 7%
24°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
4%
25°C
41%
26°C
48%
27°C
7%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 48%
25°C 41%
27°C 7%
24°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
20°C or below
$92 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$87 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$92 Vol.
1%
23°C
$536 Vol.
2%
24°C
$746 Vol.
4%
25°C
$1,760 Vol.
41%
26°C
$1,597 Vol.
48%
27°C
$197 Vol.
7%
28°C
$491 Vol.
2%
29°C
$87 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$67 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature near 25–26°C in Shanghai on August 16, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 53% for 26°C and 41% for 25°C.**
Late-summer conditions in this subtropical coastal city feature persistent high humidity and urban heat retention, keeping overnight lows typically in the mid- to upper-20s°C. Recent numerical weather prediction runs (including GFS and regional models) show a relatively stable air mass with light winds and possible scattered showers or thundershowers, which can modestly suppress daytime maxima while limiting nocturnal cooling. Official extended guidance lists expected lows around 25.5–26°C (78°F range), consistent with climatological August averages near 25–26°C but tempered by current cloud cover and moisture.
Shifts in the latest model cycles or unexpected clearing could nudge the minimum toward 25°C or hold it at 26°C, explaining the tight probability split. Lower-probability outcomes (24°C or below, or 27°C+) remain unlikely without a significant change in steering patterns or stronger precipitation, which current data do not support. Traders are weighting the most recent deterministic and ensemble guidance, which favors the narrow 25–26°C band ahead of the day’s resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$5,751End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature near 25–26°C in Shanghai on August 16, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 53% for 26°C and 41% for 25°C.**
Late-summer conditions in this subtropical coastal city feature persistent high humidity and urban heat retention, keeping overnight lows typically in the mid- to upper-20s°C. Recent numerical weather prediction runs (including GFS and regional models) show a relatively stable air mass with light winds and possible scattered showers or thundershowers, which can modestly suppress daytime maxima while limiting nocturnal cooling. Official extended guidance lists expected lows around 25.5–26°C (78°F range), consistent with climatological August averages near 25–26°C but tempered by current cloud cover and moisture.
Shifts in the latest model cycles or unexpected clearing could nudge the minimum toward 25°C or hold it at 26°C, explaining the tight probability split. Lower-probability outcomes (24°C or below, or 27°C+) remain unlikely without a significant change in steering patterns or stronger precipitation, which current data do not support. Traders are weighting the most recent deterministic and ensemble guidance, which favors the narrow 25–26°C band ahead of the day’s resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,751End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature near 25–26°C in Shanghai on August 16, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 53% for 26°C and 41% for 25°C.** Late-summer conditions in this subtropical coastal city feature persistent high humidity and urban heat retention, keeping overnight lows typically in the mid- to upper-20s°C. Recent numerical weather prediction runs (including GFS and regional models) show a relatively stable air mass with light winds and possible scattered showers or thundershowers, which can modestly suppress daytime maxima while limiting nocturnal cooling. Official extended guidance lists expected lows around 25.5–26°C (78°F range), consistent with climatological August averages near 25–26°C but tempered by current cloud cover and moisture. Shifts in the latest model cycles or unexpected clearing could nudge the minimum toward 25°C or hold it at 26°C, explaining the tight probability split. Lower-probability outcomes (24°C or below, or 27°C+) remain unlikely without a significant change in steering patterns or stronger precipitation, which current data do not support. Traders are weighting the most recent deterministic and ensemble guidance, which favors the narrow 25–26°C band ahead of the day’s resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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