Recent official and model forecasts for Shanghai indicate persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity from regional convective patterns and recent typhoon-related moisture will limit solar heating and evaporative cooling on August 16. These conditions align with observed highs of 28–30°C over the prior days, keeping expected maxima clustered near seasonal norms rather than allowing spikes above 32°C. The resulting trader consensus concentrates implied probability on 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on steering flows and precipitation timing that cap daytime peaks while acknowledging minor uncertainties in exact convective timing or localized clearing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 16?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 16?
30°C 40%
29°C 25%
31°C 22%
28°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
6%
29°C
25%
30°C
40%
31°C
22%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 40%
29°C 25%
31°C 22%
28°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
25°C or below
$324 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$26 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$48 Vol.
2%
28°C
$235 Vol.
6%
29°C
$155 Vol.
25%
30°C
$111 Vol.
40%
31°C
$399 Vol.
22%
32°C
$513 Vol.
5%
33°C
$193 Vol.
2%
34°C
$19 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$39 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official and model forecasts for Shanghai indicate persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity from regional convective patterns and recent typhoon-related moisture will limit solar heating and evaporative cooling on August 16. These conditions align with observed highs of 28–30°C over the prior days, keeping expected maxima clustered near seasonal norms rather than allowing spikes above 32°C. The resulting trader consensus concentrates implied probability on 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on steering flows and precipitation timing that cap daytime peaks while acknowledging minor uncertainties in exact convective timing or localized clearing.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,061End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official and model forecasts for Shanghai indicate persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity from regional convective patterns and recent typhoon-related moisture will limit solar heating and evaporative cooling on August 16. These conditions align with observed highs of 28–30°C over the prior days, keeping expected maxima clustered near seasonal norms rather than allowing spikes above 32°C. The resulting trader consensus concentrates implied probability on 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on steering flows and precipitation timing that cap daytime peaks while acknowledging minor uncertainties in exact convective timing or localized clearing.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,061End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official and model forecasts for Shanghai indicate persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity from regional convective patterns and recent typhoon-related moisture will limit solar heating and evaporative cooling on August 16. These conditions align with observed highs of 28–30°C over the prior days, keeping expected maxima clustered near seasonal norms rather than allowing spikes above 32°C. The resulting trader consensus concentrates implied probability on 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on steering flows and precipitation timing that cap daytime peaks while acknowledging minor uncertainties in exact convective timing or localized clearing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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