**Persistent southwest monsoon conditions, enhanced by distant Tropical Storm Pilandok, are keeping Manila's overnight minimum temperatures near seasonal norms of 25–26°C for September 4.** Forecast models from PAGASA, NOAA-influenced sources, and global ensembles show consistent overnight lows around 25–27°C under cloudy skies, high humidity near 90%, and steady southwesterly winds that limit radiative cooling. These factors suppress both sharp drops below 22°C and any anomalous warmth pushing the daily minimum above 28°C. Recent heavy rainfall from the habagat has maintained cloud cover without introducing cooler air masses, aligning with historical September baselines. Traders appear split on tail outcomes due to model spread in precipitation timing and intensity, while central probabilities cluster around the 24–27°C range where current guidance converges. Updated model runs overnight will provide the next key signal before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 4?
21°C or below 81%
31°C or higher 81%
23°C 50%
28°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
81%
22°C
49%
23°C
50%
24°C
49%
25°C
48%
26°C
31%
27°C
30%
28°C
50%
29°C
48%
30°C
49%
31°C or higher
81%
21°C or below 81%
31°C or higher 81%
23°C 50%
28°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
81%
22°C
$0 Vol.
49%
23°C
$0 Vol.
50%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C
$0 Vol.
48%
26°C
$0 Vol.
31%
27°C
$0 Vol.
30%
28°C
$0 Vol.
50%
29°C
$0 Vol.
48%
30°C
$0 Vol.
49%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon conditions, enhanced by distant Tropical Storm Pilandok, are keeping Manila's overnight minimum temperatures near seasonal norms of 25–26°C for September 4.**
Forecast models from PAGASA, NOAA-influenced sources, and global ensembles show consistent overnight lows around 25–27°C under cloudy skies, high humidity near 90%, and steady southwesterly winds that limit radiative cooling. These factors suppress both sharp drops below 22°C and any anomalous warmth pushing the daily minimum above 28°C. Recent heavy rainfall from the habagat has maintained cloud cover without introducing cooler air masses, aligning with historical September baselines. Traders appear split on tail outcomes due to model spread in precipitation timing and intensity, while central probabilities cluster around the 24–27°C range where current guidance converges. Updated model runs overnight will provide the next key signal before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon conditions, enhanced by distant Tropical Storm Pilandok, are keeping Manila's overnight minimum temperatures near seasonal norms of 25–26°C for September 4.**
Forecast models from PAGASA, NOAA-influenced sources, and global ensembles show consistent overnight lows around 25–27°C under cloudy skies, high humidity near 90%, and steady southwesterly winds that limit radiative cooling. These factors suppress both sharp drops below 22°C and any anomalous warmth pushing the daily minimum above 28°C. Recent heavy rainfall from the habagat has maintained cloud cover without introducing cooler air masses, aligning with historical September baselines. Traders appear split on tail outcomes due to model spread in precipitation timing and intensity, while central probabilities cluster around the 24–27°C range where current guidance converges. Updated model runs overnight will provide the next key signal before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent southwest monsoon conditions, enhanced by distant Tropical Storm Pilandok, are keeping Manila's overnight minimum temperatures near seasonal norms of 25–26°C for September 4.** Forecast models from PAGASA, NOAA-influenced sources, and global ensembles show consistent overnight lows around 25–27°C under cloudy skies, high humidity near 90%, and steady southwesterly winds that limit radiative cooling. These factors suppress both sharp drops below 22°C and any anomalous warmth pushing the daily minimum above 28°C. Recent heavy rainfall from the habagat has maintained cloud cover without introducing cooler air masses, aligning with historical September baselines. Traders appear split on tail outcomes due to model spread in precipitation timing and intensity, while central probabilities cluster around the 24–27°C range where current guidance converges. Updated model runs overnight will provide the next key signal before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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