Persistent southwest monsoon flows, enhanced by Tropical Storm Pilandok east of northern Luzon and expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility early on September 3, maintain extensive cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity over Manila. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, with official PAGASA guidance and model consensus pointing to overnight lows near 26–27 °C amid moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds. Trader consensus clusters on 26–28 °C as the likely minimum because even brief clear spells or lighter rain would allow only marginal additional cooling, while sustained overcast skies and moisture keep readings from dropping to 25 °C or below. Updated PAGASA bulletins and hourly observations through the evening will determine whether the low settles at the upper or lower end of this narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 3?
28°C 48%
27°C 47%
26°C 43%
25°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
3%
24°C
28%
25°C
40%
26°C
43%
27°C
47%
28°C
48%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
28°C 48%
27°C 47%
26°C 43%
25°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
21°C or below
$446 Vol.
1%
22°C
$12 Vol.
4%
23°C
$112 Vol.
3%
24°C
$2 Vol.
28%
25°C
$0 Vol.
40%
26°C
$0 Vol.
43%
27°C
$1 Vol.
47%
28°C
$17 Vol.
48%
29°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$55 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flows, enhanced by Tropical Storm Pilandok east of northern Luzon and expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility early on September 3, maintain extensive cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity over Manila. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, with official PAGASA guidance and model consensus pointing to overnight lows near 26–27 °C amid moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds. Trader consensus clusters on 26–28 °C as the likely minimum because even brief clear spells or lighter rain would allow only marginal additional cooling, while sustained overcast skies and moisture keep readings from dropping to 25 °C or below. Updated PAGASA bulletins and hourly observations through the evening will determine whether the low settles at the upper or lower end of this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$670End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flows, enhanced by Tropical Storm Pilandok east of northern Luzon and expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility early on September 3, maintain extensive cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity over Manila. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, with official PAGASA guidance and model consensus pointing to overnight lows near 26–27 °C amid moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds. Trader consensus clusters on 26–28 °C as the likely minimum because even brief clear spells or lighter rain would allow only marginal additional cooling, while sustained overcast skies and moisture keep readings from dropping to 25 °C or below. Updated PAGASA bulletins and hourly observations through the evening will determine whether the low settles at the upper or lower end of this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$670End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon flows, enhanced by Tropical Storm Pilandok east of northern Luzon and expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility early on September 3, maintain extensive cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity over Manila. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, with official PAGASA guidance and model consensus pointing to overnight lows near 26–27 °C amid moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds. Trader consensus clusters on 26–28 °C as the likely minimum because even brief clear spells or lighter rain would allow only marginal additional cooling, while sustained overcast skies and moisture keep readings from dropping to 25 °C or below. Updated PAGASA bulletins and hourly observations through the evening will determine whether the low settles at the upper or lower end of this narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions