Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate Dallas overnight lows on September 3 centering in the mid-70s, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 74–79°F. High atmospheric moisture from recent tropical influences, combined with southeasterly flow and persistent cloud cover, limits radiational cooling and keeps minimum temperatures elevated compared with drier September climatology. Scattered showers and thunderstorms add variability: heavier or more prolonged precipitation could suppress the low toward 74–75°F, while partial clearing overnight supports readings near 76–77°F or slightly higher. Ensemble guidance shows only modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds, explaining why adjacent bins hold nearly equal implied probabilities as traders weigh the precise timing of any convective activity and its impact on nocturnal temperature trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on September 3?
76-77°F 27%
74-75°F 27%
78-79°F 24%
80-81°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
69°F or below
7%
70-71°F
7%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
27%
76-77°F
27%
78-79°F
24%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 27%
74-75°F 27%
78-79°F 24%
80-81°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
69°F or below
$12 Vol.
7%
70-71°F
$80 Vol.
7%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
9%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
27%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
27%
78-79°F
$24 Vol.
24%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
18%
82-83°F
$598 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$27 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$27 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$47 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate Dallas overnight lows on September 3 centering in the mid-70s, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 74–79°F. High atmospheric moisture from recent tropical influences, combined with southeasterly flow and persistent cloud cover, limits radiational cooling and keeps minimum temperatures elevated compared with drier September climatology. Scattered showers and thunderstorms add variability: heavier or more prolonged precipitation could suppress the low toward 74–75°F, while partial clearing overnight supports readings near 76–77°F or slightly higher. Ensemble guidance shows only modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds, explaining why adjacent bins hold nearly equal implied probabilities as traders weigh the precise timing of any convective activity and its impact on nocturnal temperature trajectories.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$815End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate Dallas overnight lows on September 3 centering in the mid-70s, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 74–79°F. High atmospheric moisture from recent tropical influences, combined with southeasterly flow and persistent cloud cover, limits radiational cooling and keeps minimum temperatures elevated compared with drier September climatology. Scattered showers and thunderstorms add variability: heavier or more prolonged precipitation could suppress the low toward 74–75°F, while partial clearing overnight supports readings near 76–77°F or slightly higher. Ensemble guidance shows only modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds, explaining why adjacent bins hold nearly equal implied probabilities as traders weigh the precise timing of any convective activity and its impact on nocturnal temperature trajectories.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$815End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate Dallas overnight lows on September 3 centering in the mid-70s, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 74–79°F. High atmospheric moisture from recent tropical influences, combined with southeasterly flow and persistent cloud cover, limits radiational cooling and keeps minimum temperatures elevated compared with drier September climatology. Scattered showers and thunderstorms add variability: heavier or more prolonged precipitation could suppress the low toward 74–75°F, while partial clearing overnight supports readings near 76–77°F or slightly higher. Ensemble guidance shows only modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds, explaining why adjacent bins hold nearly equal implied probabilities as traders weigh the precise timing of any convective activity and its impact on nocturnal temperature trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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