Current National Weather Service and private model consensus points to clear skies and persistent southerly flow keeping Dallas overnight lows in the upper 70s on September 4, with most guidance centering on 78–79 °F. This warm, humid pattern—following several days of highs in the mid-90s and minimal nocturnal cooling—explains the market’s heavy weighting toward the 78–79 °F and 76–77 °F bins. A modest chance of earlier showers has diminished, reducing the likelihood of enhanced radiative cooling that could push readings into the mid-70s or lower. Historical September averages near 74 °F underscore how anomalous the current warmth remains, yet no strong frontal passage or dry-air intrusion is forecast before resolution. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning will be the key data points for any late shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on September 4?
69°F or below 46%
88°F or higher 46%
78-79°F 43%
76-77°F 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
69°F or below
46%
70-71°F
15%
72-73°F
15%
74-75°F
17%
76-77°F
32%
78-79°F
43%
80-81°F
15%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
8%
88°F or higher
46%
69°F or below 46%
88°F or higher 46%
78-79°F 43%
76-77°F 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
46%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
15%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
15%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
17%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
32%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
43%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
15%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
8%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
8%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
8%
88°F or higher
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and private model consensus points to clear skies and persistent southerly flow keeping Dallas overnight lows in the upper 70s on September 4, with most guidance centering on 78–79 °F. This warm, humid pattern—following several days of highs in the mid-90s and minimal nocturnal cooling—explains the market’s heavy weighting toward the 78–79 °F and 76–77 °F bins. A modest chance of earlier showers has diminished, reducing the likelihood of enhanced radiative cooling that could push readings into the mid-70s or lower. Historical September averages near 74 °F underscore how anomalous the current warmth remains, yet no strong frontal passage or dry-air intrusion is forecast before resolution. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning will be the key data points for any late shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and private model consensus points to clear skies and persistent southerly flow keeping Dallas overnight lows in the upper 70s on September 4, with most guidance centering on 78–79 °F. This warm, humid pattern—following several days of highs in the mid-90s and minimal nocturnal cooling—explains the market’s heavy weighting toward the 78–79 °F and 76–77 °F bins. A modest chance of earlier showers has diminished, reducing the likelihood of enhanced radiative cooling that could push readings into the mid-70s or lower. Historical September averages near 74 °F underscore how anomalous the current warmth remains, yet no strong frontal passage or dry-air intrusion is forecast before resolution. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning will be the key data points for any late shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and private model consensus points to clear skies and persistent southerly flow keeping Dallas overnight lows in the upper 70s on September 4, with most guidance centering on 78–79 °F. This warm, humid pattern—following several days of highs in the mid-90s and minimal nocturnal cooling—explains the market’s heavy weighting toward the 78–79 °F and 76–77 °F bins. A modest chance of earlier showers has diminished, reducing the likelihood of enhanced radiative cooling that could push readings into the mid-70s or lower. Historical September averages near 74 °F underscore how anomalous the current warmth remains, yet no strong frontal passage or dry-air intrusion is forecast before resolution. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning will be the key data points for any late shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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