Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate Chicago will remain under a warm, humid air mass on September 3, with overnight lows holding in the mid- to upper 70s°F amid southwest flow and limited nocturnal cooling. Scattered thunderstorms may develop later in the day but are unlikely to produce significant boundary-layer mixing or advection of cooler air before the daily minimum is reached. Persistent high dew points near 70°F and heat indices above 90°F support minimal overnight temperature drops compared to climatological norms around 63°F. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 72–79°F because small variations in storm timing, wind shifts, or lake-breeze effects could shift the precise minimum by a few degrees within the resolution windows. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 3?
76-77°F 28%
72-73°F 27%
74-75°F 27%
78-79°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
67°F or below
2%
68-69°F
7%
70-71°F
4%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
27%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 28%
72-73°F 27%
74-75°F 27%
78-79°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
67°F or below
$132 Vol.
2%
68-69°F
$179 Vol.
7%
70-71°F
$31 Vol.
4%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
27%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
27%
76-77°F
$6 Vol.
16%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
27%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
26%
82-83°F
$30 Vol.
26%
84-85°F
$57 Vol.
<1%
86°F or higher
$77 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate Chicago will remain under a warm, humid air mass on September 3, with overnight lows holding in the mid- to upper 70s°F amid southwest flow and limited nocturnal cooling. Scattered thunderstorms may develop later in the day but are unlikely to produce significant boundary-layer mixing or advection of cooler air before the daily minimum is reached. Persistent high dew points near 70°F and heat indices above 90°F support minimal overnight temperature drops compared to climatological norms around 63°F. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 72–79°F because small variations in storm timing, wind shifts, or lake-breeze effects could shift the precise minimum by a few degrees within the resolution windows. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$512End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate Chicago will remain under a warm, humid air mass on September 3, with overnight lows holding in the mid- to upper 70s°F amid southwest flow and limited nocturnal cooling. Scattered thunderstorms may develop later in the day but are unlikely to produce significant boundary-layer mixing or advection of cooler air before the daily minimum is reached. Persistent high dew points near 70°F and heat indices above 90°F support minimal overnight temperature drops compared to climatological norms around 63°F. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 72–79°F because small variations in storm timing, wind shifts, or lake-breeze effects could shift the precise minimum by a few degrees within the resolution windows. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$512End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate Chicago will remain under a warm, humid air mass on September 3, with overnight lows holding in the mid- to upper 70s°F amid southwest flow and limited nocturnal cooling. Scattered thunderstorms may develop later in the day but are unlikely to produce significant boundary-layer mixing or advection of cooler air before the daily minimum is reached. Persistent high dew points near 70°F and heat indices above 90°F support minimal overnight temperature drops compared to climatological norms around 63°F. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 72–79°F because small variations in storm timing, wind shifts, or lake-breeze effects could shift the precise minimum by a few degrees within the resolution windows. Updated model runs and official observations through the morning will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions