**Clear skies and light southerly winds overnight are supporting radiative cooling consistent with an 18°C low in Beijing on September 3, 2026.** Official and model guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international forecasts show daytime highs near 32–33°C under sunny conditions, with dew points in the 10–15°C range and minimal cloud cover, allowing temperatures to fall to around 18–20°C by early morning. This aligns closely with the long-term average low of 18.8°C for the date and recent years’ observations of 18–20°C. No significant frontal passages, precipitation, or northerly surges are expected to alter the pattern, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 18°C (77.5% market-implied probability) while leaving modest room for 17°C if cooling proves slightly more efficient. Later in the week, models indicate a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions, but today’s stable high-pressure regime supports the current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 3?
18°C 98%
16°C 5%
17°C 5%
15°C 1.8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
5%
17°C
15%
18°C
78%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 98%
16°C 5%
17°C 5%
15°C 1.8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
13°C or below
$232 Vol.
1%
14°C
$25 Vol.
1%
15°C
$271 Vol.
2%
16°C
$235 Vol.
5%
17°C
$230 Vol.
15%
18°C
$402 Vol.
78%
19°C
$315 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$147 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$127 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$106 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$211 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light southerly winds overnight are supporting radiative cooling consistent with an 18°C low in Beijing on September 3, 2026.** Official and model guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international forecasts show daytime highs near 32–33°C under sunny conditions, with dew points in the 10–15°C range and minimal cloud cover, allowing temperatures to fall to around 18–20°C by early morning. This aligns closely with the long-term average low of 18.8°C for the date and recent years’ observations of 18–20°C.
No significant frontal passages, precipitation, or northerly surges are expected to alter the pattern, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 18°C (77.5% market-implied probability) while leaving modest room for 17°C if cooling proves slightly more efficient. Later in the week, models indicate a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions, but today’s stable high-pressure regime supports the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,302End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light southerly winds overnight are supporting radiative cooling consistent with an 18°C low in Beijing on September 3, 2026.** Official and model guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international forecasts show daytime highs near 32–33°C under sunny conditions, with dew points in the 10–15°C range and minimal cloud cover, allowing temperatures to fall to around 18–20°C by early morning. This aligns closely with the long-term average low of 18.8°C for the date and recent years’ observations of 18–20°C.
No significant frontal passages, precipitation, or northerly surges are expected to alter the pattern, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 18°C (77.5% market-implied probability) while leaving modest room for 17°C if cooling proves slightly more efficient. Later in the week, models indicate a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions, but today’s stable high-pressure regime supports the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,302End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Clear skies and light southerly winds overnight are supporting radiative cooling consistent with an 18°C low in Beijing on September 3, 2026.** Official and model guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international forecasts show daytime highs near 32–33°C under sunny conditions, with dew points in the 10–15°C range and minimal cloud cover, allowing temperatures to fall to around 18–20°C by early morning. This aligns closely with the long-term average low of 18.8°C for the date and recent years’ observations of 18–20°C. No significant frontal passages, precipitation, or northerly surges are expected to alter the pattern, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 18°C (77.5% market-implied probability) while leaving modest room for 17°C if cooling proves slightly more efficient. Later in the week, models indicate a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions, but today’s stable high-pressure regime supports the current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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