Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall between 19–22 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and moderate humidity, supporting the near-even market split between 18 °C and 19 °C. Radiative cooling overnight will be the dominant process, modulated by urban heat-island effects and any thin cloud cover that could raise the floor by 1–2 °C. Current consensus from sources such as GFS runs and local agencies shows no significant cold advection or precipitation until later in the week, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around these two outcomes while lower probabilities for 17 °C or 20 °C+ reflect residual model spread and typical forecast uncertainty at this range. Updated model runs tonight will be the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 4?
21°C 90%
17°C 89%
14°C 88%
15°C 88%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
13°C or below
21%
14°C
88%
15°C
88%
16°C
88%
17°C
89%
18°C
51%
19°C
49%
20°C
88%
21°C
90%
22°C
88%
23°C or higher
33%
21°C 90%
17°C 89%
14°C 88%
15°C 88%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
13°C or below
$179 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
88%
15°C
$0 Vol.
88%
16°C
$0 Vol.
88%
17°C
$0 Vol.
89%
18°C
$0 Vol.
51%
19°C
$0 Vol.
49%
20°C
$0 Vol.
88%
21°C
$0 Vol.
90%
22°C
$0 Vol.
88%
23°C or higher
$231 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall between 19–22 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and moderate humidity, supporting the near-even market split between 18 °C and 19 °C. Radiative cooling overnight will be the dominant process, modulated by urban heat-island effects and any thin cloud cover that could raise the floor by 1–2 °C. Current consensus from sources such as GFS runs and local agencies shows no significant cold advection or precipitation until later in the week, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around these two outcomes while lower probabilities for 17 °C or 20 °C+ reflect residual model spread and typical forecast uncertainty at this range. Updated model runs tonight will be the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$410End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall between 19–22 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and moderate humidity, supporting the near-even market split between 18 °C and 19 °C. Radiative cooling overnight will be the dominant process, modulated by urban heat-island effects and any thin cloud cover that could raise the floor by 1–2 °C. Current consensus from sources such as GFS runs and local agencies shows no significant cold advection or precipitation until later in the week, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around these two outcomes while lower probabilities for 17 °C or 20 °C+ reflect residual model spread and typical forecast uncertainty at this range. Updated model runs tonight will be the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$410End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely fall between 19–22 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and moderate humidity, supporting the near-even market split between 18 °C and 19 °C. Radiative cooling overnight will be the dominant process, modulated by urban heat-island effects and any thin cloud cover that could raise the floor by 1–2 °C. Current consensus from sources such as GFS runs and local agencies shows no significant cold advection or precipitation until later in the week, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around these two outcomes while lower probabilities for 17 °C or 20 °C+ reflect residual model spread and typical forecast uncertainty at this range. Updated model runs tonight will be the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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