Latest forecast models from global ensembles indicate a tight range of 32–33°C as the most probable high for Beijing on September 4, reflecting modest uncertainty in the strength of southerly flow and boundary-layer mixing ahead of a weak frontal passage. Historical early-September climatology shows Beijing highs averaging near 29°C, so current guidance points to above-normal warmth driven by a lingering subtropical ridge; however, small shifts in timing of cloud cover or wind direction could easily push the peak 1–2°C lower. Official Chinese Meteorological Administration observations and post-event verification will resolve the market, with traders weighting ensemble spreads that still allow for modest downside risk if nocturnal cooling lingers longer than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 4?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 4?
33°C 36%
32°C 31%
34°C 15%
31°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
11%
32°C
31%
33°C
36%
34°C
15%
35°C
4%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
33°C 36%
32°C 31%
34°C 15%
31°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
27°C or below
$190 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$11 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$468 Vol.
2%
30°C
$156 Vol.
3%
31°C
$332 Vol.
11%
32°C
$3,846 Vol.
31%
33°C
$636 Vol.
36%
34°C
$797 Vol.
15%
35°C
$352 Vol.
4%
36°C
$152 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$325 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models from global ensembles indicate a tight range of 32–33°C as the most probable high for Beijing on September 4, reflecting modest uncertainty in the strength of southerly flow and boundary-layer mixing ahead of a weak frontal passage. Historical early-September climatology shows Beijing highs averaging near 29°C, so current guidance points to above-normal warmth driven by a lingering subtropical ridge; however, small shifts in timing of cloud cover or wind direction could easily push the peak 1–2°C lower. Official Chinese Meteorological Administration observations and post-event verification will resolve the market, with traders weighting ensemble spreads that still allow for modest downside risk if nocturnal cooling lingers longer than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$7,264End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models from global ensembles indicate a tight range of 32–33°C as the most probable high for Beijing on September 4, reflecting modest uncertainty in the strength of southerly flow and boundary-layer mixing ahead of a weak frontal passage. Historical early-September climatology shows Beijing highs averaging near 29°C, so current guidance points to above-normal warmth driven by a lingering subtropical ridge; however, small shifts in timing of cloud cover or wind direction could easily push the peak 1–2°C lower. Official Chinese Meteorological Administration observations and post-event verification will resolve the market, with traders weighting ensemble spreads that still allow for modest downside risk if nocturnal cooling lingers longer than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,264End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast models from global ensembles indicate a tight range of 32–33°C as the most probable high for Beijing on September 4, reflecting modest uncertainty in the strength of southerly flow and boundary-layer mixing ahead of a weak frontal passage. Historical early-September climatology shows Beijing highs averaging near 29°C, so current guidance points to above-normal warmth driven by a lingering subtropical ridge; however, small shifts in timing of cloud cover or wind direction could easily push the peak 1–2°C lower. Official Chinese Meteorological Administration observations and post-event verification will resolve the market, with traders weighting ensemble spreads that still allow for modest downside risk if nocturnal cooling lingers longer than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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