Elevated early- and mid-season tornado activity has driven the strong market consensus toward 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes for 2026. Through mid-August, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and National Centers for Environmental Information report roughly 1,135 confirmed tornadoes, well above the long-term annual average of about 1,200, with Illinois alone accounting for over 200 amid repeated Midwest outbreaks in March, April, and June. Confirmed counts include multiple EF2–EF4 events, while preliminary reports from NWS offices continue to exceed historical baselines. With peak months largely concluded and only modest fall activity expected, recent model guidance and climatological trends support continued accumulation toward or above the 1,250 threshold before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 8.1%
1150–1199 7.8%
1100–1149 4.2%
$81,752 Vol.
$81,752 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
2%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
8%
1200–1249
8%
1250+
86%
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 8.1%
1150–1199 7.8%
1100–1149 4.2%
$81,752 Vol.
$81,752 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$23,720 Vol.
2%
950–999
$3,618 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 Vol.
<1%
1100–1149
$3,248 Vol.
4%
1150–1199
$4,082 Vol.
8%
1200–1249
$15,917 Vol.
8%
1250+
$18,543 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated early- and mid-season tornado activity has driven the strong market consensus toward 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes for 2026. Through mid-August, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and National Centers for Environmental Information report roughly 1,135 confirmed tornadoes, well above the long-term annual average of about 1,200, with Illinois alone accounting for over 200 amid repeated Midwest outbreaks in March, April, and June. Confirmed counts include multiple EF2–EF4 events, while preliminary reports from NWS offices continue to exceed historical baselines. With peak months largely concluded and only modest fall activity expected, recent model guidance and climatological trends support continued accumulation toward or above the 1,250 threshold before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$81,752End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated early- and mid-season tornado activity has driven the strong market consensus toward 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes for 2026. Through mid-August, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and National Centers for Environmental Information report roughly 1,135 confirmed tornadoes, well above the long-term annual average of about 1,200, with Illinois alone accounting for over 200 amid repeated Midwest outbreaks in March, April, and June. Confirmed counts include multiple EF2–EF4 events, while preliminary reports from NWS offices continue to exceed historical baselines. With peak months largely concluded and only modest fall activity expected, recent model guidance and climatological trends support continued accumulation toward or above the 1,250 threshold before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$81,752End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated early- and mid-season tornado activity has driven the strong market consensus toward 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes for 2026. Through mid-August, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and National Centers for Environmental Information report roughly 1,135 confirmed tornadoes, well above the long-term annual average of about 1,200, with Illinois alone accounting for over 200 amid repeated Midwest outbreaks in March, April, and June. Confirmed counts include multiple EF2–EF4 events, while preliminary reports from NWS offices continue to exceed historical baselines. With peak months largely concluded and only modest fall activity expected, recent model guidance and climatological trends support continued accumulation toward or above the 1,250 threshold before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions