Strengthening El Niño conditions, with NOAA confirming a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event by late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader consensus above 1.29°C for August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to 1850–1900. Recent observations show June and July 2026 already ranking among the warmest on record at approximately 1.47–1.49°C above pre-industrial levels, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic trend and ocean heat content. Model ensembles project continued global temperature enhancement through boreal summer, though resolution depends on exact monthly averaging methods and any short-term variability in sea surface temperatures. A weaker-than-expected El Niño intensification or significant data revision could narrow the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 95%
1.25–1.29ºC 4.5%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$13,838 Vol.
$13,838 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
5%
>1.29ºC
95%
>1.29ºC 95%
1.25–1.29ºC 4.5%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$13,838 Vol.
$13,838 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,077 Vol.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,513 Vol.
5%
>1.29ºC
$6,250 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strengthening El Niño conditions, with NOAA confirming a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event by late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader consensus above 1.29°C for August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to 1850–1900. Recent observations show June and July 2026 already ranking among the warmest on record at approximately 1.47–1.49°C above pre-industrial levels, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic trend and ocean heat content. Model ensembles project continued global temperature enhancement through boreal summer, though resolution depends on exact monthly averaging methods and any short-term variability in sea surface temperatures. A weaker-than-expected El Niño intensification or significant data revision could narrow the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$13,838End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strengthening El Niño conditions, with NOAA confirming a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event by late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader consensus above 1.29°C for August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to 1850–1900. Recent observations show June and July 2026 already ranking among the warmest on record at approximately 1.47–1.49°C above pre-industrial levels, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic trend and ocean heat content. Model ensembles project continued global temperature enhancement through boreal summer, though resolution depends on exact monthly averaging methods and any short-term variability in sea surface temperatures. A weaker-than-expected El Niño intensification or significant data revision could narrow the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$13,838End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strengthening El Niño conditions, with NOAA confirming a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event by late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader consensus above 1.29°C for August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to 1850–1900. Recent observations show June and July 2026 already ranking among the warmest on record at approximately 1.47–1.49°C above pre-industrial levels, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic trend and ocean heat content. Model ensembles project continued global temperature enhancement through boreal summer, though resolution depends on exact monthly averaging methods and any short-term variability in sea surface temperatures. A weaker-than-expected El Niño intensification or significant data revision could narrow the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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