**Forecast models from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and regional services point to a peak temperature in São Paulo on September 4 near 28–30 °C under northwest flow and partly cloudy skies, supporting the market’s leading outcomes at 39 % for 29 °C and 24.5 % for 30 °C.** September climatology shows average highs near 23–24 °C, so the current setup reflects a temporary warm anomaly driven by subsidence and reduced cloud cover during peak daytime heating. Ensemble guidance indicates modest spread, with some runs favoring 27 °C and others reaching 31 °C depending on exact timing of any late-day sea-breeze influence or increased humidity. Traders are weighting the consensus around the upper end of the normal spring range while noting that official INMET observations, used for resolution, can vary slightly from model grids. Updated model runs and the final afternoon maximum will determine the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 4?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 4?
29°C 40%
30°C 24%
28°C 22%
27°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
2%
26°C
3%
27°C
5%
28°C
22%
29°C
40%
30°C
24%
31°C
5%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
2%
29°C 40%
30°C 24%
28°C 22%
27°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
$275 Vol.
2%
24°C
$100 Vol.
2%
25°C
$239 Vol.
2%
26°C
$97 Vol.
3%
27°C
$309 Vol.
5%
28°C
$174 Vol.
22%
29°C
$248 Vol.
40%
30°C
$458 Vol.
24%
31°C
$26 Vol.
5%
32°C
$33 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and regional services point to a peak temperature in São Paulo on September 4 near 28–30 °C under northwest flow and partly cloudy skies, supporting the market’s leading outcomes at 39 % for 29 °C and 24.5 % for 30 °C.**
September climatology shows average highs near 23–24 °C, so the current setup reflects a temporary warm anomaly driven by subsidence and reduced cloud cover during peak daytime heating. Ensemble guidance indicates modest spread, with some runs favoring 27 °C and others reaching 31 °C depending on exact timing of any late-day sea-breeze influence or increased humidity. Traders are weighting the consensus around the upper end of the normal spring range while noting that official INMET observations, used for resolution, can vary slightly from model grids. Updated model runs and the final afternoon maximum will determine the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$1,959End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and regional services point to a peak temperature in São Paulo on September 4 near 28–30 °C under northwest flow and partly cloudy skies, supporting the market’s leading outcomes at 39 % for 29 °C and 24.5 % for 30 °C.**
September climatology shows average highs near 23–24 °C, so the current setup reflects a temporary warm anomaly driven by subsidence and reduced cloud cover during peak daytime heating. Ensemble guidance indicates modest spread, with some runs favoring 27 °C and others reaching 31 °C depending on exact timing of any late-day sea-breeze influence or increased humidity. Traders are weighting the consensus around the upper end of the normal spring range while noting that official INMET observations, used for resolution, can vary slightly from model grids. Updated model runs and the final afternoon maximum will determine the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,959End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and regional services point to a peak temperature in São Paulo on September 4 near 28–30 °C under northwest flow and partly cloudy skies, supporting the market’s leading outcomes at 39 % for 29 °C and 24.5 % for 30 °C.** September climatology shows average highs near 23–24 °C, so the current setup reflects a temporary warm anomaly driven by subsidence and reduced cloud cover during peak daytime heating. Ensemble guidance indicates modest spread, with some runs favoring 27 °C and others reaching 31 °C depending on exact timing of any late-day sea-breeze influence or increased humidity. Traders are weighting the consensus around the upper end of the normal spring range while noting that official INMET observations, used for resolution, can vary slightly from model grids. Updated model runs and the final afternoon maximum will determine the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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