Recent forecasts for Qingdao indicate mostly clear skies and light northeast winds of 3–4 levels on September 4, supporting daytime heating under typical early-September conditions with low precipitation risk. Official and model guidance clusters between 27–32°C, with some runs such as the Met Office projecting a 32°C peak while others, including several regional sources, favor 28–30°C highs amid moderate humidity around 50–60%. This tight spread underpins the near-even market-implied odds for 31°C and 32°C, as small differences in boundary-layer mixing, solar insolation timing, or localized sea-breeze effects could determine the exact maximum. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely refine the resolution threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 4?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 4?
31°C 40%
32°C 39%
30°C 12%
33°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
12%
31°C
40%
32°C
39%
33°C
8%
34°C
3%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 40%
32°C 39%
30°C 12%
33°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
26°C or below
$374 Vol.
1%
27°C
$108 Vol.
1%
28°C
$344 Vol.
1%
29°C
$429 Vol.
3%
30°C
$369 Vol.
12%
31°C
$265 Vol.
40%
32°C
$602 Vol.
39%
33°C
$97 Vol.
8%
34°C
$374 Vol.
3%
35°C
$61 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$73 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Qingdao indicate mostly clear skies and light northeast winds of 3–4 levels on September 4, supporting daytime heating under typical early-September conditions with low precipitation risk. Official and model guidance clusters between 27–32°C, with some runs such as the Met Office projecting a 32°C peak while others, including several regional sources, favor 28–30°C highs amid moderate humidity around 50–60%. This tight spread underpins the near-even market-implied odds for 31°C and 32°C, as small differences in boundary-layer mixing, solar insolation timing, or localized sea-breeze effects could determine the exact maximum. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely refine the resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$3,095End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Qingdao indicate mostly clear skies and light northeast winds of 3–4 levels on September 4, supporting daytime heating under typical early-September conditions with low precipitation risk. Official and model guidance clusters between 27–32°C, with some runs such as the Met Office projecting a 32°C peak while others, including several regional sources, favor 28–30°C highs amid moderate humidity around 50–60%. This tight spread underpins the near-even market-implied odds for 31°C and 32°C, as small differences in boundary-layer mixing, solar insolation timing, or localized sea-breeze effects could determine the exact maximum. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely refine the resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,095End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Qingdao indicate mostly clear skies and light northeast winds of 3–4 levels on September 4, supporting daytime heating under typical early-September conditions with low precipitation risk. Official and model guidance clusters between 27–32°C, with some runs such as the Met Office projecting a 32°C peak while others, including several regional sources, favor 28–30°C highs amid moderate humidity around 50–60%. This tight spread underpins the near-even market-implied odds for 31°C and 32°C, as small differences in boundary-layer mixing, solar insolation timing, or localized sea-breeze effects could determine the exact maximum. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely refine the resolution threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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