Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate mostly clear skies and light northeast winds over Qingdao on September 4, supporting moderate nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. Trader sentiment remains dispersed across the 17–24°C range because coastal sea-surface temperatures near 24–26°C limit how far inland air masses can cool overnight, while subtle differences in boundary-layer humidity and wind speed can shift the daily minimum by 2–3°C. Current consensus points to a low near 20–22°C, yet small revisions in the 00Z or 12Z model runs could favor either the 17°C or 19–21°C bins. Historical September minima average around 18°C, providing context for the balanced probabilities ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Qingdao on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on September 4?
24°C or higher 72%
14°C or below 71%
16°C 50%
19°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
14°C or below
71%
15°C
27%
16°C
50%
17°C
38%
18°C
21%
19°C
48%
20°C
48%
21°C
48%
22°C
48%
23°C
48%
24°C or higher
72%
24°C or higher 72%
14°C or below 71%
16°C 50%
19°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
71%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
50%
17°C
$0 Vol.
38%
18°C
$66 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
48%
20°C
$0 Vol.
48%
21°C
$0 Vol.
48%
22°C
$0 Vol.
48%
23°C
$0 Vol.
48%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate mostly clear skies and light northeast winds over Qingdao on September 4, supporting moderate nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. Trader sentiment remains dispersed across the 17–24°C range because coastal sea-surface temperatures near 24–26°C limit how far inland air masses can cool overnight, while subtle differences in boundary-layer humidity and wind speed can shift the daily minimum by 2–3°C. Current consensus points to a low near 20–22°C, yet small revisions in the 00Z or 12Z model runs could favor either the 17°C or 19–21°C bins. Historical September minima average around 18°C, providing context for the balanced probabilities ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$66End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate mostly clear skies and light northeast winds over Qingdao on September 4, supporting moderate nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. Trader sentiment remains dispersed across the 17–24°C range because coastal sea-surface temperatures near 24–26°C limit how far inland air masses can cool overnight, while subtle differences in boundary-layer humidity and wind speed can shift the daily minimum by 2–3°C. Current consensus points to a low near 20–22°C, yet small revisions in the 00Z or 12Z model runs could favor either the 17°C or 19–21°C bins. Historical September minima average around 18°C, providing context for the balanced probabilities ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$66End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate mostly clear skies and light northeast winds over Qingdao on September 4, supporting moderate nocturnal radiative cooling under high pressure. Trader sentiment remains dispersed across the 17–24°C range because coastal sea-surface temperatures near 24–26°C limit how far inland air masses can cool overnight, while subtle differences in boundary-layer humidity and wind speed can shift the daily minimum by 2–3°C. Current consensus points to a low near 20–22°C, yet small revisions in the 00Z or 12Z model runs could favor either the 17°C or 19–21°C bins. Historical September minima average around 18°C, providing context for the balanced probabilities ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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