Recent official forecasts from the Met Office and supporting model guidance indicate a high near 22–23 °C for London on September 4, driven by a northwest frontal system bringing increased cloud cover, patchy drizzle, and westerly winds that limit daytime heating after the warmer conditions of September 3. Ensemble runs show modest spread around this range, with overcast skies and 20–40 % precipitation chances during peak hours reducing solar insolation and keeping maxima below the seasonal average. Market-implied probabilities align closely with this consensus, placing the greatest weight on 21–23 °C while assigning low odds to outliers above 24 °C that would require unexpected clearing. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings through the evening of September 3 remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on September 4?
Highest temperature in London on September 4?
22°C 44%
21°C 24%
23°C 22%
24°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
4%
21°C
24%
22°C
44%
23°C
22%
24°C
5%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 44%
21°C 24%
23°C 22%
24°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
17°C or below
$245 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$218 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$110 Vol.
2%
20°C
$393 Vol.
4%
21°C
$711 Vol.
24%
22°C
$770 Vol.
44%
23°C
$683 Vol.
22%
24°C
$877 Vol.
5%
25°C
$277 Vol.
1%
26°C
$259 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$244 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Met Office and supporting model guidance indicate a high near 22–23 °C for London on September 4, driven by a northwest frontal system bringing increased cloud cover, patchy drizzle, and westerly winds that limit daytime heating after the warmer conditions of September 3. Ensemble runs show modest spread around this range, with overcast skies and 20–40 % precipitation chances during peak hours reducing solar insolation and keeping maxima below the seasonal average. Market-implied probabilities align closely with this consensus, placing the greatest weight on 21–23 °C while assigning low odds to outliers above 24 °C that would require unexpected clearing. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings through the evening of September 3 remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$4,788End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Met Office and supporting model guidance indicate a high near 22–23 °C for London on September 4, driven by a northwest frontal system bringing increased cloud cover, patchy drizzle, and westerly winds that limit daytime heating after the warmer conditions of September 3. Ensemble runs show modest spread around this range, with overcast skies and 20–40 % precipitation chances during peak hours reducing solar insolation and keeping maxima below the seasonal average. Market-implied probabilities align closely with this consensus, placing the greatest weight on 21–23 °C while assigning low odds to outliers above 24 °C that would require unexpected clearing. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings through the evening of September 3 remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,788End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Met Office and supporting model guidance indicate a high near 22–23 °C for London on September 4, driven by a northwest frontal system bringing increased cloud cover, patchy drizzle, and westerly winds that limit daytime heating after the warmer conditions of September 3. Ensemble runs show modest spread around this range, with overcast skies and 20–40 % precipitation chances during peak hours reducing solar insolation and keeping maxima below the seasonal average. Market-implied probabilities align closely with this consensus, placing the greatest weight on 21–23 °C while assigning low odds to outliers above 24 °C that would require unexpected clearing. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings through the evening of September 3 remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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