**Recent atmospheric patterns over southern England, including a southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover ahead of a weak front, are moderating overnight radiative cooling and keeping minimum temperatures relatively mild for early September.** Official guidance from the Met Office indicates a nighttime low near 12 °C for 4 September under mostly cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle possible, while other model outputs and ensemble guidance cluster between 13–17 °C depending on the exact timing of cloud breaks and wind speeds. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 17 °C (44 %) and 18 °C (34.5 %), with 16 °C at 21.5 %, reflects trader weighting of these near-term model differences and the limited window for further cooling before dawn. Key resolution thresholds hinge on the precise hourly minimum recorded at official London stations, where even a 1–2 °C shift from variable wind or clearer spells could tip the outcome between the leading contracts. Updated Met Office and ECMWF runs expected later today will likely narrow the range ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 4?
Lowest temperature in London on September 4?
17°C 38%
18°C 35%
16°C 21%
15°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
5%
16°C
21%
17°C
38%
18°C
35%
19°C
4%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
17°C 38%
18°C 35%
16°C 21%
15°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
$30 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$53 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$0 Vol.
2%
15°C
$43 Vol.
5%
16°C
$266 Vol.
21%
17°C
$388 Vol.
38%
18°C
$728 Vol.
35%
19°C
$211 Vol.
4%
20°C
$196 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$136 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$61 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent atmospheric patterns over southern England, including a southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover ahead of a weak front, are moderating overnight radiative cooling and keeping minimum temperatures relatively mild for early September.** Official guidance from the Met Office indicates a nighttime low near 12 °C for 4 September under mostly cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle possible, while other model outputs and ensemble guidance cluster between 13–17 °C depending on the exact timing of cloud breaks and wind speeds. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 17 °C (44 %) and 18 °C (34.5 %), with 16 °C at 21.5 %, reflects trader weighting of these near-term model differences and the limited window for further cooling before dawn. Key resolution thresholds hinge on the precise hourly minimum recorded at official London stations, where even a 1–2 °C shift from variable wind or clearer spells could tip the outcome between the leading contracts. Updated Met Office and ECMWF runs expected later today will likely narrow the range ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,112End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent atmospheric patterns over southern England, including a southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover ahead of a weak front, are moderating overnight radiative cooling and keeping minimum temperatures relatively mild for early September.** Official guidance from the Met Office indicates a nighttime low near 12 °C for 4 September under mostly cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle possible, while other model outputs and ensemble guidance cluster between 13–17 °C depending on the exact timing of cloud breaks and wind speeds. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 17 °C (44 %) and 18 °C (34.5 %), with 16 °C at 21.5 %, reflects trader weighting of these near-term model differences and the limited window for further cooling before dawn. Key resolution thresholds hinge on the precise hourly minimum recorded at official London stations, where even a 1–2 °C shift from variable wind or clearer spells could tip the outcome between the leading contracts. Updated Met Office and ECMWF runs expected later today will likely narrow the range ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,112End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent atmospheric patterns over southern England, including a southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover ahead of a weak front, are moderating overnight radiative cooling and keeping minimum temperatures relatively mild for early September.** Official guidance from the Met Office indicates a nighttime low near 12 °C for 4 September under mostly cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle possible, while other model outputs and ensemble guidance cluster between 13–17 °C depending on the exact timing of cloud breaks and wind speeds. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 17 °C (44 %) and 18 °C (34.5 %), with 16 °C at 21.5 %, reflects trader weighting of these near-term model differences and the limited window for further cooling before dawn. Key resolution thresholds hinge on the precise hourly minimum recorded at official London stations, where even a 1–2 °C shift from variable wind or clearer spells could tip the outcome between the leading contracts. Updated Met Office and ECMWF runs expected later today will likely narrow the range ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Beware of external links.
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