**Persistent summer heat across central Texas, driven by strong high pressure and southerly flow, supports a forecast high near 105–106°F for Austin on August 22.** The National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio office projects sunny skies with a high around 106°F and heat indices to 112°F, consistent with recent days that reached 103–106°F. Global forecast models show tight clustering in the mid-100s, reflecting limited cloud cover, minimal precipitation chances, and climatologically elevated temperatures well above the ~96°F seasonal norm. Market-implied odds favoring 104–105°F (55%) align with this consensus while assigning secondary weight to 102–103°F and 106–107°F bins, capturing residual uncertainty from exact timing of the daily peak and minor model spread. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 22?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 22?
104-105°F 53%
102-103°F 26%
106-107°F 18%
108-109°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
3%
100-101°F
3%
102-103°F
26%
104-105°F
53%
106-107°F
18%
108-109°F
9%
110-111°F
1%
112-113°F
1%
114°F or higher
<1%
104-105°F 53%
102-103°F 26%
106-107°F 18%
108-109°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
95°F or below
$20 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$20 Vol.
1%
98-99°F
$5 Vol.
3%
100-101°F
$42 Vol.
3%
102-103°F
$206 Vol.
26%
104-105°F
$222 Vol.
53%
106-107°F
$20 Vol.
18%
108-109°F
$68 Vol.
9%
110-111°F
$55 Vol.
1%
112-113°F
$32 Vol.
1%
114°F or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent summer heat across central Texas, driven by strong high pressure and southerly flow, supports a forecast high near 105–106°F for Austin on August 22.** The National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio office projects sunny skies with a high around 106°F and heat indices to 112°F, consistent with recent days that reached 103–106°F. Global forecast models show tight clustering in the mid-100s, reflecting limited cloud cover, minimal precipitation chances, and climatologically elevated temperatures well above the ~96°F seasonal norm. Market-implied odds favoring 104–105°F (55%) align with this consensus while assigning secondary weight to 102–103°F and 106–107°F bins, capturing residual uncertainty from exact timing of the daily peak and minor model spread. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$699End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent summer heat across central Texas, driven by strong high pressure and southerly flow, supports a forecast high near 105–106°F for Austin on August 22.** The National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio office projects sunny skies with a high around 106°F and heat indices to 112°F, consistent with recent days that reached 103–106°F. Global forecast models show tight clustering in the mid-100s, reflecting limited cloud cover, minimal precipitation chances, and climatologically elevated temperatures well above the ~96°F seasonal norm. Market-implied odds favoring 104–105°F (55%) align with this consensus while assigning secondary weight to 102–103°F and 106–107°F bins, capturing residual uncertainty from exact timing of the daily peak and minor model spread. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$699End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent summer heat across central Texas, driven by strong high pressure and southerly flow, supports a forecast high near 105–106°F for Austin on August 22.** The National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio office projects sunny skies with a high around 106°F and heat indices to 112°F, consistent with recent days that reached 103–106°F. Global forecast models show tight clustering in the mid-100s, reflecting limited cloud cover, minimal precipitation chances, and climatologically elevated temperatures well above the ~96°F seasonal norm. Market-implied odds favoring 104–105°F (55%) align with this consensus while assigning secondary weight to 102–103°F and 106–107°F bins, capturing residual uncertainty from exact timing of the daily peak and minor model spread. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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