**Persistent Atlantic westerly flow and widespread cloud cover with rain are keeping maximum temperatures in Amsterdam capped near 20–21°C on September 4.** Multiple operational forecasts, including those drawing on ECMWF and GFS guidance, show daytime highs of 20–21°C (68–70°F) under mostly cloudy to overcast skies, with periods of rain and gusty winds of 15–20 mph that enhance mixing and limit surface heating. This setup follows a similar pattern on September 3, with no significant ridge building or clear-sky intervals expected to push readings higher. Model consensus clusters tightly around these values, explaining why trader-implied probabilities favor 21°C (50.5%) slightly over 22°C (44.0%), while lower outcomes remain marginal. Minor differences hinge on exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture, with final KNMI or official station observations resolving the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 4?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 4?
21°C 51%
22°C 44%
20°C 4%
23°C 2%
NEW
$10,542 Vol.
NEW
$10,542 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
4%
21°C
51%
22°C
44%
23°C
2%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 51%
22°C 44%
20°C 4%
23°C 2%
NEW
$10,542 Vol.
NEW
$10,542 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
17°C or below
$481 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$585 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$250 Vol.
1%
20°C
$826 Vol.
4%
21°C
$1,315 Vol.
51%
22°C
$3,987 Vol.
44%
23°C
$1,492 Vol.
2%
24°C
$223 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$628 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$585 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$171 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent Atlantic westerly flow and widespread cloud cover with rain are keeping maximum temperatures in Amsterdam capped near 20–21°C on September 4.** Multiple operational forecasts, including those drawing on ECMWF and GFS guidance, show daytime highs of 20–21°C (68–70°F) under mostly cloudy to overcast skies, with periods of rain and gusty winds of 15–20 mph that enhance mixing and limit surface heating.
This setup follows a similar pattern on September 3, with no significant ridge building or clear-sky intervals expected to push readings higher. Model consensus clusters tightly around these values, explaining why trader-implied probabilities favor 21°C (50.5%) slightly over 22°C (44.0%), while lower outcomes remain marginal. Minor differences hinge on exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture, with final KNMI or official station observations resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$10,542End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent Atlantic westerly flow and widespread cloud cover with rain are keeping maximum temperatures in Amsterdam capped near 20–21°C on September 4.** Multiple operational forecasts, including those drawing on ECMWF and GFS guidance, show daytime highs of 20–21°C (68–70°F) under mostly cloudy to overcast skies, with periods of rain and gusty winds of 15–20 mph that enhance mixing and limit surface heating.
This setup follows a similar pattern on September 3, with no significant ridge building or clear-sky intervals expected to push readings higher. Model consensus clusters tightly around these values, explaining why trader-implied probabilities favor 21°C (50.5%) slightly over 22°C (44.0%), while lower outcomes remain marginal. Minor differences hinge on exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture, with final KNMI or official station observations resolving the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,542End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent Atlantic westerly flow and widespread cloud cover with rain are keeping maximum temperatures in Amsterdam capped near 20–21°C on September 4.** Multiple operational forecasts, including those drawing on ECMWF and GFS guidance, show daytime highs of 20–21°C (68–70°F) under mostly cloudy to overcast skies, with periods of rain and gusty winds of 15–20 mph that enhance mixing and limit surface heating. This setup follows a similar pattern on September 3, with no significant ridge building or clear-sky intervals expected to push readings higher. Model consensus clusters tightly around these values, explaining why trader-implied probabilities favor 21°C (50.5%) slightly over 22°C (44.0%), while lower outcomes remain marginal. Minor differences hinge on exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture, with final KNMI or official station observations resolving the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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