Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and European centers point to a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 4 around 15–17°C, supported by persistent westerly flow, high cloud cover, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under a mild maritime air mass. This keeps the implied probability highest for outcomes near 16–18°C, above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 12°C for the date. Rain and gusty winds further suppress temperature drops, while model consensus shows low risk of colder air intrusion. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread in ensemble guidance, with resolution hinging on the official overnight minimum recorded at Schiphol or equivalent stations; any late-model shift toward clearer skies could elevate chances for values below 15°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 4?
22°C or higher 95%
19°C 49%
17°C 27%
18°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
15%
13°C
14%
14°C
14%
15°C
5%
16°C
27%
17°C
27%
18°C
27%
19°C
49%
20°C
15%
21°C
8%
22°C or higher
95%
22°C or higher 95%
19°C 49%
17°C 27%
18°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
15%
13°C
$0 Vol.
14%
14°C
$0 Vol.
14%
15°C
$43 Vol.
5%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
49%
20°C
$0 Vol.
15%
21°C
$0 Vol.
8%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and European centers point to a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 4 around 15–17°C, supported by persistent westerly flow, high cloud cover, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under a mild maritime air mass. This keeps the implied probability highest for outcomes near 16–18°C, above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 12°C for the date. Rain and gusty winds further suppress temperature drops, while model consensus shows low risk of colder air intrusion. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread in ensemble guidance, with resolution hinging on the official overnight minimum recorded at Schiphol or equivalent stations; any late-model shift toward clearer skies could elevate chances for values below 15°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$43End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and European centers point to a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 4 around 15–17°C, supported by persistent westerly flow, high cloud cover, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under a mild maritime air mass. This keeps the implied probability highest for outcomes near 16–18°C, above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 12°C for the date. Rain and gusty winds further suppress temperature drops, while model consensus shows low risk of colder air intrusion. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread in ensemble guidance, with resolution hinging on the official overnight minimum recorded at Schiphol or equivalent stations; any late-model shift toward clearer skies could elevate chances for values below 15°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$43End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and European centers point to a minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 4 around 15–17°C, supported by persistent westerly flow, high cloud cover, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under a mild maritime air mass. This keeps the implied probability highest for outcomes near 16–18°C, above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 12°C for the date. Rain and gusty winds further suppress temperature drops, while model consensus shows low risk of colder air intrusion. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread in ensemble guidance, with resolution hinging on the official overnight minimum recorded at Schiphol or equivalent stations; any late-model shift toward clearer skies could elevate chances for values below 15°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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