Strong northwesterly winds and variable cloud cover are the main drivers keeping trader consensus split between 13°C and 12°C as the most likely minimum for Wellington on September 3. Official forecasts from MetService and international models show overnight lows near 12–13°C under partly cloudy skies, with dew points around 7–8°C limiting further cooling despite the spring seasonal average near 9°C. Coastal marine influence and gusts exceeding 30 knots reduce radiative heat loss, while any increased cloud or showers could push the reading slightly lower. The narrow 53–46% split reflects this forecast uncertainty ahead of final overnight observations, with lower outcomes like 11°C or below priced far lower due to limited support in current model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 3?
8°C or below 47%
12°C 46%
11°C 5%
10°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
8°C or below
47%
9°C
2%
10°C
3%
11°C
5%
12°C
46%
13°C
54%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
8°C or below 47%
12°C 46%
11°C 5%
10°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
8°C or below
$67 Vol.
47%
9°C
$67 Vol.
2%
10°C
$75 Vol.
3%
11°C
$56 Vol.
5%
12°C
$0 Vol.
46%
13°C
$35 Vol.
54%
14°C
$251 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$135 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$140 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong northwesterly winds and variable cloud cover are the main drivers keeping trader consensus split between 13°C and 12°C as the most likely minimum for Wellington on September 3. Official forecasts from MetService and international models show overnight lows near 12–13°C under partly cloudy skies, with dew points around 7–8°C limiting further cooling despite the spring seasonal average near 9°C. Coastal marine influence and gusts exceeding 30 knots reduce radiative heat loss, while any increased cloud or showers could push the reading slightly lower. The narrow 53–46% split reflects this forecast uncertainty ahead of final overnight observations, with lower outcomes like 11°C or below priced far lower due to limited support in current model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$991End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong northwesterly winds and variable cloud cover are the main drivers keeping trader consensus split between 13°C and 12°C as the most likely minimum for Wellington on September 3. Official forecasts from MetService and international models show overnight lows near 12–13°C under partly cloudy skies, with dew points around 7–8°C limiting further cooling despite the spring seasonal average near 9°C. Coastal marine influence and gusts exceeding 30 knots reduce radiative heat loss, while any increased cloud or showers could push the reading slightly lower. The narrow 53–46% split reflects this forecast uncertainty ahead of final overnight observations, with lower outcomes like 11°C or below priced far lower due to limited support in current model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$991End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong northwesterly winds and variable cloud cover are the main drivers keeping trader consensus split between 13°C and 12°C as the most likely minimum for Wellington on September 3. Official forecasts from MetService and international models show overnight lows near 12–13°C under partly cloudy skies, with dew points around 7–8°C limiting further cooling despite the spring seasonal average near 9°C. Coastal marine influence and gusts exceeding 30 knots reduce radiative heat loss, while any increased cloud or showers could push the reading slightly lower. The narrow 53–46% split reflects this forecast uncertainty ahead of final overnight observations, with lower outcomes like 11°C or below priced far lower due to limited support in current model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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