Recent forecasts from multiple models and agencies, including hourly data for Incheon International Airport, indicate the overnight low on September 4 will likely settle near 20–22°C under clear skies and moderate northeasterly flow that promotes radiative cooling. Consensus points to a minimum around 21°C, aligning with the market's leading 44.5% implied probability for that outcome and supporting 22°C at 27.5%. Stable high-pressure conditions and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius have kept humidity moderate, limiting further cooling, while historical September baselines for the Seoul-Incheon area average lows near 18–20°C. No major frontal systems or model divergences appear in latest runs, though traders will watch the next KMA update for any revisions to wind or cloud cover that could shift the final recorded minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 4?
21°C 31%
22°C 30%
20°C 12%
23°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
15°C or below
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
8%
18°C
4%
19°C
7%
20°C
12%
21°C
43%
22°C
30%
23°C
11%
24°C
4%
25°C or higher
2%
21°C 31%
22°C 30%
20°C 12%
23°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
15°C or below
$582 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
8%
18°C
$125 Vol.
4%
19°C
$136 Vol.
7%
20°C
$155 Vol.
12%
21°C
$55 Vol.
43%
22°C
$16 Vol.
30%
23°C
$10 Vol.
11%
24°C
$0 Vol.
4%
25°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models and agencies, including hourly data for Incheon International Airport, indicate the overnight low on September 4 will likely settle near 20–22°C under clear skies and moderate northeasterly flow that promotes radiative cooling. Consensus points to a minimum around 21°C, aligning with the market's leading 44.5% implied probability for that outcome and supporting 22°C at 27.5%. Stable high-pressure conditions and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius have kept humidity moderate, limiting further cooling, while historical September baselines for the Seoul-Incheon area average lows near 18–20°C. No major frontal systems or model divergences appear in latest runs, though traders will watch the next KMA update for any revisions to wind or cloud cover that could shift the final recorded minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,089End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models and agencies, including hourly data for Incheon International Airport, indicate the overnight low on September 4 will likely settle near 20–22°C under clear skies and moderate northeasterly flow that promotes radiative cooling. Consensus points to a minimum around 21°C, aligning with the market's leading 44.5% implied probability for that outcome and supporting 22°C at 27.5%. Stable high-pressure conditions and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius have kept humidity moderate, limiting further cooling, while historical September baselines for the Seoul-Incheon area average lows near 18–20°C. No major frontal systems or model divergences appear in latest runs, though traders will watch the next KMA update for any revisions to wind or cloud cover that could shift the final recorded minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,089End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models and agencies, including hourly data for Incheon International Airport, indicate the overnight low on September 4 will likely settle near 20–22°C under clear skies and moderate northeasterly flow that promotes radiative cooling. Consensus points to a minimum around 21°C, aligning with the market's leading 44.5% implied probability for that outcome and supporting 22°C at 27.5%. Stable high-pressure conditions and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius have kept humidity moderate, limiting further cooling, while historical September baselines for the Seoul-Incheon area average lows near 18–20°C. No major frontal systems or model divergences appear in latest runs, though traders will watch the next KMA update for any revisions to wind or cloud cover that could shift the final recorded minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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