Official forecasts for São Paulo on August 23 project overnight lows near 9–13°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, aligning closely with typical Southern Hemisphere winter climatology (historical August minima averaging 12–14°C at urban stations). This narrow band of model consensus—driven by stable high-pressure dominance and absence of strong cold fronts or polar air incursions—explains the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across 8–13°C outcomes. Resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded at the primary INMET reference station, where urban heat effects and exact timing of the diurnal minimum introduce residual uncertainty even as traders weigh recent model runs showing minimal day-to-day variance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 23?
8°C or below 50%
11°C 49%
13°C 49%
9°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
8°C or below
50%
9°C
33%
10°C
33%
11°C
49%
12°C
50%
13°C
49%
14°C
33%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
8°C or below 50%
11°C 49%
13°C 49%
9°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
8°C or below
$15 Vol.
50%
9°C
$0 Vol.
33%
10°C
$0 Vol.
33%
11°C
$0 Vol.
49%
12°C
$16 Vol.
50%
13°C
$0 Vol.
49%
14°C
$0 Vol.
33%
15°C
$90 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$590 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$110 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$181 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts for São Paulo on August 23 project overnight lows near 9–13°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, aligning closely with typical Southern Hemisphere winter climatology (historical August minima averaging 12–14°C at urban stations). This narrow band of model consensus—driven by stable high-pressure dominance and absence of strong cold fronts or polar air incursions—explains the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across 8–13°C outcomes. Resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded at the primary INMET reference station, where urban heat effects and exact timing of the diurnal minimum introduce residual uncertainty even as traders weigh recent model runs showing minimal day-to-day variance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$1,002End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts for São Paulo on August 23 project overnight lows near 9–13°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, aligning closely with typical Southern Hemisphere winter climatology (historical August minima averaging 12–14°C at urban stations). This narrow band of model consensus—driven by stable high-pressure dominance and absence of strong cold fronts or polar air incursions—explains the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across 8–13°C outcomes. Resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded at the primary INMET reference station, where urban heat effects and exact timing of the diurnal minimum introduce residual uncertainty even as traders weigh recent model runs showing minimal day-to-day variance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,002End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts for São Paulo on August 23 project overnight lows near 9–13°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds, aligning closely with typical Southern Hemisphere winter climatology (historical August minima averaging 12–14°C at urban stations). This narrow band of model consensus—driven by stable high-pressure dominance and absence of strong cold fronts or polar air incursions—explains the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across 8–13°C outcomes. Resolution hinges on the official minimum recorded at the primary INMET reference station, where urban heat effects and exact timing of the diurnal minimum introduce residual uncertainty even as traders weigh recent model runs showing minimal day-to-day variance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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