Persistent marine layer depth and onshore southwest flow dominate trader positioning for San Francisco’s August 23 overnight low, with National Weather Service guidance and model consensus centering on 57–58°F amid mostly cloudy conditions that limit radiational cooling. Recent August observations of frequent low stratus and modest daytime heating have reinforced near-normal minimums around the 57°F climatological baseline, while variable marine layer compression introduces the modest uncertainty reflected in closely matched probabilities for the 56–59°F brackets. Onshore winds and timing of any brief clearing remain the key variables that could shift the exact minimum by a degree or two before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 23?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 23?
66-67°F 82%
68°F or higher 73%
64-65°F 65%
58-59°F 64%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
49°F or below
32%
50-51°F
62%
52-53°F
25%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
41%
58-59°F
49%
60-61°F
25%
62-63°F
25%
64-65°F
65%
66-67°F
82%
68°F or higher
73%
66-67°F 82%
68°F or higher 73%
64-65°F 65%
58-59°F 64%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
49°F or below
$25 Vol.
32%
50-51°F
$25 Vol.
62%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
25%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
25%
56-57°F
$5 Vol.
41%
58-59°F
$18 Vol.
49%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
25%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
25%
64-65°F
$35 Vol.
65%
66-67°F
$31 Vol.
82%
68°F or higher
$10 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent marine layer depth and onshore southwest flow dominate trader positioning for San Francisco’s August 23 overnight low, with National Weather Service guidance and model consensus centering on 57–58°F amid mostly cloudy conditions that limit radiational cooling. Recent August observations of frequent low stratus and modest daytime heating have reinforced near-normal minimums around the 57°F climatological baseline, while variable marine layer compression introduces the modest uncertainty reflected in closely matched probabilities for the 56–59°F brackets. Onshore winds and timing of any brief clearing remain the key variables that could shift the exact minimum by a degree or two before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$149End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent marine layer depth and onshore southwest flow dominate trader positioning for San Francisco’s August 23 overnight low, with National Weather Service guidance and model consensus centering on 57–58°F amid mostly cloudy conditions that limit radiational cooling. Recent August observations of frequent low stratus and modest daytime heating have reinforced near-normal minimums around the 57°F climatological baseline, while variable marine layer compression introduces the modest uncertainty reflected in closely matched probabilities for the 56–59°F brackets. Onshore winds and timing of any brief clearing remain the key variables that could shift the exact minimum by a degree or two before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$149End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent marine layer depth and onshore southwest flow dominate trader positioning for San Francisco’s August 23 overnight low, with National Weather Service guidance and model consensus centering on 57–58°F amid mostly cloudy conditions that limit radiational cooling. Recent August observations of frequent low stratus and modest daytime heating have reinforced near-normal minimums around the 57°F climatological baseline, while variable marine layer compression introduces the modest uncertainty reflected in closely matched probabilities for the 56–59°F brackets. Onshore winds and timing of any brief clearing remain the key variables that could shift the exact minimum by a degree or two before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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