Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight into August 22, supporting radiational cooling under light winds and typical late-summer dew points near 60°F. This setup favors a minimum temperature in the mid-60s, slightly above the 1991–2020 normal of 64.6°F for the date, with urban heat-island effects and Lake Michigan moderation adding localized variability of 2–4°F. Recent model consensus shows limited spread, as no strong frontal passages or anomalous air masses are forecast, keeping probabilities clustered around 64–67°F ranges. Traders weigh these factors against potential revisions from the next model cycle or observed dew-point trends before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 22?
66-67°F 45%
64-65°F 31%
62-63°F 27%
60-61°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
26%
60-61°F
27%
62-63°F
27%
64-65°F
31%
66-67°F
45%
68-69°F
26%
70-71°F
26%
72-73°F
18%
74°F or higher
11%
66-67°F 45%
64-65°F 31%
62-63°F 27%
60-61°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
55°F or below
$22 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$22 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
26%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
27%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
27%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
31%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
45%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
26%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
26%
72-73°F
$20 Vol.
18%
74°F or higher
$37 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight into August 22, supporting radiational cooling under light winds and typical late-summer dew points near 60°F. This setup favors a minimum temperature in the mid-60s, slightly above the 1991–2020 normal of 64.6°F for the date, with urban heat-island effects and Lake Michigan moderation adding localized variability of 2–4°F. Recent model consensus shows limited spread, as no strong frontal passages or anomalous air masses are forecast, keeping probabilities clustered around 64–67°F ranges. Traders weigh these factors against potential revisions from the next model cycle or observed dew-point trends before market close.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$101End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight into August 22, supporting radiational cooling under light winds and typical late-summer dew points near 60°F. This setup favors a minimum temperature in the mid-60s, slightly above the 1991–2020 normal of 64.6°F for the date, with urban heat-island effects and Lake Michigan moderation adding localized variability of 2–4°F. Recent model consensus shows limited spread, as no strong frontal passages or anomalous air masses are forecast, keeping probabilities clustered around 64–67°F ranges. Traders weigh these factors against potential revisions from the next model cycle or observed dew-point trends before market close.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$101End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight into August 22, supporting radiational cooling under light winds and typical late-summer dew points near 60°F. This setup favors a minimum temperature in the mid-60s, slightly above the 1991–2020 normal of 64.6°F for the date, with urban heat-island effects and Lake Michigan moderation adding localized variability of 2–4°F. Recent model consensus shows limited spread, as no strong frontal passages or anomalous air masses are forecast, keeping probabilities clustered around 64–67°F ranges. Traders weigh these factors against potential revisions from the next model cycle or observed dew-point trends before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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