**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international models, point to an overnight minimum in Buenos Aires on September 3, 2026, likely between 8–12°C.** This range aligns with early spring climatology, where average September lows hover near 9°C. Westerly to southwesterly winds of 15–25 km/h, combined with decreasing cloud cover into the night, favor radiative cooling under clearer skies, supporting the market’s leading 45.5% implied probability for 9°C or below. Model consensus shows highs around 17–18°C during the day with morning showers tapering off, followed by partly cloudy to clearing conditions that enhance heat loss after sunset. Some runs (e.g., certain GFS-based outputs) dip as low as 8–9°C, while others hold near 10–12°C depending on residual moisture and wind strength. This spread explains why exact values like 10°C, 11°C, and 12°C each carry roughly 34% implied odds—reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty in the precise minimum. No major cold-air outbreak is in play; instead, typical post-frontal subsidence and clear-sky radiative processes are the dominant drivers. Updated model runs and official SMN briefings over the next several hours will likely refine the exact low, potentially shifting probabilities if clouds linger or winds remain stronger than expected. Traders appear to weigh the clear-sky cooling potential most heavily in current positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 3?
10°C 35%
11°C 35%
12°C 35%
13°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
9°C or below
48%
10°C
35%
11°C
35%
12°C
35%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
10°C 35%
11°C 35%
12°C 35%
13°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
9°C or below
$6 Vol.
48%
10°C
$0 Vol.
35%
11°C
$0 Vol.
35%
12°C
$0 Vol.
35%
13°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$114 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$266 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$87 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$87 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$17 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$102 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international models, point to an overnight minimum in Buenos Aires on September 3, 2026, likely between 8–12°C.** This range aligns with early spring climatology, where average September lows hover near 9°C. Westerly to southwesterly winds of 15–25 km/h, combined with decreasing cloud cover into the night, favor radiative cooling under clearer skies, supporting the market’s leading 45.5% implied probability for 9°C or below.
Model consensus shows highs around 17–18°C during the day with morning showers tapering off, followed by partly cloudy to clearing conditions that enhance heat loss after sunset. Some runs (e.g., certain GFS-based outputs) dip as low as 8–9°C, while others hold near 10–12°C depending on residual moisture and wind strength. This spread explains why exact values like 10°C, 11°C, and 12°C each carry roughly 34% implied odds—reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty in the precise minimum.
No major cold-air outbreak is in play; instead, typical post-frontal subsidence and clear-sky radiative processes are the dominant drivers. Updated model runs and official SMN briefings over the next several hours will likely refine the exact low, potentially shifting probabilities if clouds linger or winds remain stronger than expected. Traders appear to weigh the clear-sky cooling potential most heavily in current positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$679End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international models, point to an overnight minimum in Buenos Aires on September 3, 2026, likely between 8–12°C.** This range aligns with early spring climatology, where average September lows hover near 9°C. Westerly to southwesterly winds of 15–25 km/h, combined with decreasing cloud cover into the night, favor radiative cooling under clearer skies, supporting the market’s leading 45.5% implied probability for 9°C or below.
Model consensus shows highs around 17–18°C during the day with morning showers tapering off, followed by partly cloudy to clearing conditions that enhance heat loss after sunset. Some runs (e.g., certain GFS-based outputs) dip as low as 8–9°C, while others hold near 10–12°C depending on residual moisture and wind strength. This spread explains why exact values like 10°C, 11°C, and 12°C each carry roughly 34% implied odds—reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty in the precise minimum.
No major cold-air outbreak is in play; instead, typical post-frontal subsidence and clear-sky radiative processes are the dominant drivers. Updated model runs and official SMN briefings over the next several hours will likely refine the exact low, potentially shifting probabilities if clouds linger or winds remain stronger than expected. Traders appear to weigh the clear-sky cooling potential most heavily in current positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$679End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international models, point to an overnight minimum in Buenos Aires on September 3, 2026, likely between 8–12°C.** This range aligns with early spring climatology, where average September lows hover near 9°C. Westerly to southwesterly winds of 15–25 km/h, combined with decreasing cloud cover into the night, favor radiative cooling under clearer skies, supporting the market’s leading 45.5% implied probability for 9°C or below. Model consensus shows highs around 17–18°C during the day with morning showers tapering off, followed by partly cloudy to clearing conditions that enhance heat loss after sunset. Some runs (e.g., certain GFS-based outputs) dip as low as 8–9°C, while others hold near 10–12°C depending on residual moisture and wind strength. This spread explains why exact values like 10°C, 11°C, and 12°C each carry roughly 34% implied odds—reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty in the precise minimum. No major cold-air outbreak is in play; instead, typical post-frontal subsidence and clear-sky radiative processes are the dominant drivers. Updated model runs and official SMN briefings over the next several hours will likely refine the exact low, potentially shifting probabilities if clouds linger or winds remain stronger than expected. Traders appear to weigh the clear-sky cooling potential most heavily in current positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions