**Elevated early-season activity in the Northwest Pacific, with at least four confirmed Chinese landfalls by mid-August (Maysak, Bavi, Noul, and Dolphin), has positioned 5–7 total landfalls as the leading outcomes.** A developing strong El Niño is boosting overall tropical cyclone formation rates above the long-term average while shifting steering patterns that favor recurvature toward eastern China and adjacent regions. Official monitoring shows 16–17 named storms already by early August—the most active pace since 1971—with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0 °C in the eastern equatorial Pacific and supportive atmospheric conditions including enhanced monsoon trough activity. Forecasters note that the remaining peak months (August–October) typically account for the majority of annual landfalls, yet model consensus on intensification potential and track clustering near China’s coastline supports the current market-implied probabilities clustered around 5–7 rather than extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
5 24%
7 23%
6 22%
Greater than 8 13%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
4%
5
31%
6
19%
7
33%
8
11%
Greater than 8
13%
5 24%
7 23%
6 22%
Greater than 8 13%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$332 Vol.
4%
5
$557 Vol.
31%
6
$572 Vol.
19%
7
$306 Vol.
33%
8
$122 Vol.
11%
Greater than 8
$229 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).**Elevated early-season activity in the Northwest Pacific, with at least four confirmed Chinese landfalls by mid-August (Maysak, Bavi, Noul, and Dolphin), has positioned 5–7 total landfalls as the leading outcomes.** A developing strong El Niño is boosting overall tropical cyclone formation rates above the long-term average while shifting steering patterns that favor recurvature toward eastern China and adjacent regions. Official monitoring shows 16–17 named storms already by early August—the most active pace since 1971—with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0 °C in the eastern equatorial Pacific and supportive atmospheric conditions including enhanced monsoon trough activity. Forecasters note that the remaining peak months (August–October) typically account for the majority of annual landfalls, yet model consensus on intensification potential and track clustering near China’s coastline supports the current market-implied probabilities clustered around 5–7 rather than extremes.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,118End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).**Elevated early-season activity in the Northwest Pacific, with at least four confirmed Chinese landfalls by mid-August (Maysak, Bavi, Noul, and Dolphin), has positioned 5–7 total landfalls as the leading outcomes.** A developing strong El Niño is boosting overall tropical cyclone formation rates above the long-term average while shifting steering patterns that favor recurvature toward eastern China and adjacent regions. Official monitoring shows 16–17 named storms already by early August—the most active pace since 1971—with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0 °C in the eastern equatorial Pacific and supportive atmospheric conditions including enhanced monsoon trough activity. Forecasters note that the remaining peak months (August–October) typically account for the majority of annual landfalls, yet model consensus on intensification potential and track clustering near China’s coastline supports the current market-implied probabilities clustered around 5–7 rather than extremes.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$2,118End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated early-season activity in the Northwest Pacific, with at least four confirmed Chinese landfalls by mid-August (Maysak, Bavi, Noul, and Dolphin), has positioned 5–7 total landfalls as the leading outcomes.** A developing strong El Niño is boosting overall tropical cyclone formation rates above the long-term average while shifting steering patterns that favor recurvature toward eastern China and adjacent regions. Official monitoring shows 16–17 named storms already by early August—the most active pace since 1971—with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0 °C in the eastern equatorial Pacific and supportive atmospheric conditions including enhanced monsoon trough activity. Forecasters note that the remaining peak months (August–October) typically account for the majority of annual landfalls, yet model consensus on intensification potential and track clustering near China’s coastline supports the current market-implied probabilities clustered around 5–7 rather than extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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