Official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting model runs position a 26°C high as the most likely outcome for Toronto on September 4, with a mix of sun and cloud, light northwesterly winds, and minimal precipitation risk keeping temperatures from surging higher. Recent northerly flow has displaced warmer, more humid air masses that produced 27–29°C readings earlier in the week, establishing a cooler baseline consistent with early-September climatology. Market-implied odds favor 25–27°C because ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range, with any late-day clearing or wind shifts potentially adding or subtracting 1°C. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on September 4?
Highest temperature in Toronto on September 4?
26°C 39%
25°C 29%
27°C 18%
24°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
11%
25°C
29%
26°C
39%
27°C
18%
28°C
3%
29°C
2%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 39%
25°C 29%
27°C 18%
24°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
$119 Vol.
1%
22°C
$90 Vol.
1%
23°C
$124 Vol.
3%
24°C
$463 Vol.
11%
25°C
$157 Vol.
29%
26°C
$497 Vol.
39%
27°C
$672 Vol.
18%
28°C
$194 Vol.
3%
29°C
$99 Vol.
2%
30°C
$199 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$1,711 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting model runs position a 26°C high as the most likely outcome for Toronto on September 4, with a mix of sun and cloud, light northwesterly winds, and minimal precipitation risk keeping temperatures from surging higher. Recent northerly flow has displaced warmer, more humid air masses that produced 27–29°C readings earlier in the week, establishing a cooler baseline consistent with early-September climatology. Market-implied odds favor 25–27°C because ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range, with any late-day clearing or wind shifts potentially adding or subtracting 1°C. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$4,326End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting model runs position a 26°C high as the most likely outcome for Toronto on September 4, with a mix of sun and cloud, light northwesterly winds, and minimal precipitation risk keeping temperatures from surging higher. Recent northerly flow has displaced warmer, more humid air masses that produced 27–29°C readings earlier in the week, establishing a cooler baseline consistent with early-September climatology. Market-implied odds favor 25–27°C because ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range, with any late-day clearing or wind shifts potentially adding or subtracting 1°C. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,326End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting model runs position a 26°C high as the most likely outcome for Toronto on September 4, with a mix of sun and cloud, light northwesterly winds, and minimal precipitation risk keeping temperatures from surging higher. Recent northerly flow has displaced warmer, more humid air masses that produced 27–29°C readings earlier in the week, establishing a cooler baseline consistent with early-September climatology. Market-implied odds favor 25–27°C because ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range, with any late-day clearing or wind shifts potentially adding or subtracting 1°C. Updated model runs and Environment Canada briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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