Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting global models indicate light southerly flow and partly cloudy skies overnight, supporting a minimum near 26°C as the dominant market-implied outcome at 98.5% probability. August climatology in the region features typical overnight lows of 25–27°C amid high humidity and monsoon influences, with urban heat retention in Hong Kong limiting radiative cooling. Model consensus on boundary-layer mixing and wind speeds underpins trader positioning, though modest variations in cloud cover or onshore flow could allow brief dips toward 25°C. Official temperature verification the following morning will resolve the market, with any unexpected clearer skies or enhanced ventilation representing the primary realistic scenarios for deviation from the leading threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?
26°C 99%
25°C 2%
24°C <1%
22°C or below <1%
$62,909 Vol.
$62,909 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
99%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99%
25°C 2%
24°C <1%
22°C or below <1%
$62,909 Vol.
$62,909 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
22°C or below
$2,658 Vol.
1%
23°C
$4,022 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$4,072 Vol.
1%
25°C
$6,857 Vol.
2%
26°C
$7,261 Vol.
99%
27°C
$17,656 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$6,128 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$8,406 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$4,174 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$567 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$1,108 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting global models indicate light southerly flow and partly cloudy skies overnight, supporting a minimum near 26°C as the dominant market-implied outcome at 98.5% probability. August climatology in the region features typical overnight lows of 25–27°C amid high humidity and monsoon influences, with urban heat retention in Hong Kong limiting radiative cooling. Model consensus on boundary-layer mixing and wind speeds underpins trader positioning, though modest variations in cloud cover or onshore flow could allow brief dips toward 25°C. Official temperature verification the following morning will resolve the market, with any unexpected clearer skies or enhanced ventilation representing the primary realistic scenarios for deviation from the leading threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$62,909End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting global models indicate light southerly flow and partly cloudy skies overnight, supporting a minimum near 26°C as the dominant market-implied outcome at 98.5% probability. August climatology in the region features typical overnight lows of 25–27°C amid high humidity and monsoon influences, with urban heat retention in Hong Kong limiting radiative cooling. Model consensus on boundary-layer mixing and wind speeds underpins trader positioning, though modest variations in cloud cover or onshore flow could allow brief dips toward 25°C. Official temperature verification the following morning will resolve the market, with any unexpected clearer skies or enhanced ventilation representing the primary realistic scenarios for deviation from the leading threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$62,909End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting global models indicate light southerly flow and partly cloudy skies overnight, supporting a minimum near 26°C as the dominant market-implied outcome at 98.5% probability. August climatology in the region features typical overnight lows of 25–27°C amid high humidity and monsoon influences, with urban heat retention in Hong Kong limiting radiative cooling. Model consensus on boundary-layer mixing and wind speeds underpins trader positioning, though modest variations in cloud cover or onshore flow could allow brief dips toward 25°C. Official temperature verification the following morning will resolve the market, with any unexpected clearer skies or enhanced ventilation representing the primary realistic scenarios for deviation from the leading threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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