Latest meteorological forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and European models show Amsterdam under high pressure with southerly flow and clear skies, supporting a peak temperature of 33–34°C on August 14. These conditions align with mid-August climatology for the region while recent model consensus has held steady near the upper end of historical norms, where 30°C+ occurs on only a few days per summer. Traders have priced the 34°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability and 33°C at 32.5%, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band in official guidance and limited potential for further warming without shifts in steering patterns. Updated runs and observational data through the morning will determine whether the market resolves toward the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14?
34°C 57%
33°C 22%
35°C 18%
36°C 2.7%
$73,626 Vol.
$73,626 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
22%
34°C
57%
35°C
18%
36°C
3%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
34°C 57%
33°C 22%
35°C 18%
36°C 2.7%
$73,626 Vol.
$73,626 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
28°C or below
$6,190 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,012 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,018 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$6,504 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$16,324 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$10,610 Vol.
22%
34°C
$10,742 Vol.
57%
35°C
$7,340 Vol.
18%
36°C
$8,064 Vol.
3%
37°C
$1,511 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$1,311 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest meteorological forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and European models show Amsterdam under high pressure with southerly flow and clear skies, supporting a peak temperature of 33–34°C on August 14. These conditions align with mid-August climatology for the region while recent model consensus has held steady near the upper end of historical norms, where 30°C+ occurs on only a few days per summer. Traders have priced the 34°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability and 33°C at 32.5%, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band in official guidance and limited potential for further warming without shifts in steering patterns. Updated runs and observational data through the morning will determine whether the market resolves toward the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$73,626End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest meteorological forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and European models show Amsterdam under high pressure with southerly flow and clear skies, supporting a peak temperature of 33–34°C on August 14. These conditions align with mid-August climatology for the region while recent model consensus has held steady near the upper end of historical norms, where 30°C+ occurs on only a few days per summer. Traders have priced the 34°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability and 33°C at 32.5%, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band in official guidance and limited potential for further warming without shifts in steering patterns. Updated runs and observational data through the morning will determine whether the market resolves toward the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$73,626End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest meteorological forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and European models show Amsterdam under high pressure with southerly flow and clear skies, supporting a peak temperature of 33–34°C on August 14. These conditions align with mid-August climatology for the region while recent model consensus has held steady near the upper end of historical norms, where 30°C+ occurs on only a few days per summer. Traders have priced the 34°C outcome at 51.5% implied probability and 33°C at 32.5%, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band in official guidance and limited potential for further warming without shifts in steering patterns. Updated runs and observational data through the morning will determine whether the market resolves toward the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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