The overwhelming 99% market-implied probability for a 28°C high in Manila on August 14 stems from official PAGASA forecasts and real-time observations under the active southwest monsoon, which brings persistent cloud cover, scattered rains, and thunderstorms that limit solar heating and cap afternoon peaks. Current conditions show temperatures hovering near 26–27°C with high humidity and moderate winds, consistent with seasonal August baselines of 26–31°C. This trader consensus aligns closely with agency guidance projecting a maximum around 28°C for Metro Manila. A realistic challenge would require unexpected monsoon weakening or prolonged clear skies allowing brief spikes above 29–30°C, though model consensus and ongoing rainfall make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 14?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 14?
28°C 99.7%
30°C <1%
29°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
$58,426 Vol.
$58,426 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99.7%
30°C <1%
29°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
$58,426 Vol.
$58,426 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
25°C or below
$358 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$3,267 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$23,756 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$6,937 Vol.
100%
29°C
$5,427 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$4,873 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$5,898 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$3,487 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,437 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$1,450 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$1,538 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The overwhelming 99% market-implied probability for a 28°C high in Manila on August 14 stems from official PAGASA forecasts and real-time observations under the active southwest monsoon, which brings persistent cloud cover, scattered rains, and thunderstorms that limit solar heating and cap afternoon peaks. Current conditions show temperatures hovering near 26–27°C with high humidity and moderate winds, consistent with seasonal August baselines of 26–31°C. This trader consensus aligns closely with agency guidance projecting a maximum around 28°C for Metro Manila. A realistic challenge would require unexpected monsoon weakening or prolonged clear skies allowing brief spikes above 29–30°C, though model consensus and ongoing rainfall make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$58,426End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The overwhelming 99% market-implied probability for a 28°C high in Manila on August 14 stems from official PAGASA forecasts and real-time observations under the active southwest monsoon, which brings persistent cloud cover, scattered rains, and thunderstorms that limit solar heating and cap afternoon peaks. Current conditions show temperatures hovering near 26–27°C with high humidity and moderate winds, consistent with seasonal August baselines of 26–31°C. This trader consensus aligns closely with agency guidance projecting a maximum around 28°C for Metro Manila. A realistic challenge would require unexpected monsoon weakening or prolonged clear skies allowing brief spikes above 29–30°C, though model consensus and ongoing rainfall make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$58,426End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The overwhelming 99% market-implied probability for a 28°C high in Manila on August 14 stems from official PAGASA forecasts and real-time observations under the active southwest monsoon, which brings persistent cloud cover, scattered rains, and thunderstorms that limit solar heating and cap afternoon peaks. Current conditions show temperatures hovering near 26–27°C with high humidity and moderate winds, consistent with seasonal August baselines of 26–31°C. This trader consensus aligns closely with agency guidance projecting a maximum around 28°C for Metro Manila. A realistic challenge would require unexpected monsoon weakening or prolonged clear skies allowing brief spikes above 29–30°C, though model consensus and ongoing rainfall make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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