Latest AEMET and ensemble model guidance points to a maximum of 38°C in Madrid on August 14, supported by a stable subtropical ridge and residual warm advection that limit cooling overnight while sustaining daytime heating under clear skies. This aligns closely with the market’s leading 52.5% implied probability for 38°C and 33% for 37°C, reflecting trader consensus on the narrow range. Historical August baselines near 32–35°C and recent model runs showing minimal deviation reinforce the outlook, though small shifts in ridge position or local wind patterns could still tip the daily peak. Updated forecasts and real-time observations through the afternoon will provide the final resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 14?
38°C 52%
37°C 33%
39°C 16%
36°C 3.2%
$55,302 Vol.
$55,302 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
3%
37°C
33%
38°C
52%
39°C
16%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
38°C 52%
37°C 33%
39°C 16%
36°C 3.2%
$55,302 Vol.
$55,302 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
$7,290 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$8,466 Vol.
3%
37°C
$9,241 Vol.
33%
38°C
$9,706 Vol.
52%
39°C
$11,401 Vol.
16%
40°C
$5,916 Vol.
1%
41°C
$1,758 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$713 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$276 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$270 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$263 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET and ensemble model guidance points to a maximum of 38°C in Madrid on August 14, supported by a stable subtropical ridge and residual warm advection that limit cooling overnight while sustaining daytime heating under clear skies. This aligns closely with the market’s leading 52.5% implied probability for 38°C and 33% for 37°C, reflecting trader consensus on the narrow range. Historical August baselines near 32–35°C and recent model runs showing minimal deviation reinforce the outlook, though small shifts in ridge position or local wind patterns could still tip the daily peak. Updated forecasts and real-time observations through the afternoon will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$55,302End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET and ensemble model guidance points to a maximum of 38°C in Madrid on August 14, supported by a stable subtropical ridge and residual warm advection that limit cooling overnight while sustaining daytime heating under clear skies. This aligns closely with the market’s leading 52.5% implied probability for 38°C and 33% for 37°C, reflecting trader consensus on the narrow range. Historical August baselines near 32–35°C and recent model runs showing minimal deviation reinforce the outlook, though small shifts in ridge position or local wind patterns could still tip the daily peak. Updated forecasts and real-time observations through the afternoon will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$55,302End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET and ensemble model guidance points to a maximum of 38°C in Madrid on August 14, supported by a stable subtropical ridge and residual warm advection that limit cooling overnight while sustaining daytime heating under clear skies. This aligns closely with the market’s leading 52.5% implied probability for 38°C and 33% for 37°C, reflecting trader consensus on the narrow range. Historical August baselines near 32–35°C and recent model runs showing minimal deviation reinforce the outlook, though small shifts in ridge position or local wind patterns could still tip the daily peak. Updated forecasts and real-time observations through the afternoon will provide the final resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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