Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models indicate a peak near 39 °C in Paris on August 14, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and southerly warm-air advection under clear skies and low soil moisture from the ongoing heatwave. Prior days reached or exceeded 40 °C, sustaining elevated boundary-layer temperatures, while climatological August maxima average only 25–27 °C. Limited convective inhibition and minimal cloud cover keep the risk of a 40 °C exceedance secondary, aligning with the market-implied 63.5 % probability for 39 °C and 24.5 % for 40 °C; updated afternoon observations and final official readings will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 14?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 14?
39°C 69%
40°C 24%
38°C 3%
41°C 1.0%
$61,365 Vol.
$61,365 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
1%
38°C
3%
39°C
69%
40°C
24%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 69%
40°C 24%
38°C 3%
41°C 1.0%
$61,365 Vol.
$61,365 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
$4,507 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$3,421 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$12,972 Vol.
1%
38°C
$13,029 Vol.
3%
39°C
$10,709 Vol.
69%
40°C
$6,717 Vol.
24%
41°C
$4,445 Vol.
1%
42°C
$2,817 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$1,745 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$556 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$447 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models indicate a peak near 39 °C in Paris on August 14, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and southerly warm-air advection under clear skies and low soil moisture from the ongoing heatwave. Prior days reached or exceeded 40 °C, sustaining elevated boundary-layer temperatures, while climatological August maxima average only 25–27 °C. Limited convective inhibition and minimal cloud cover keep the risk of a 40 °C exceedance secondary, aligning with the market-implied 63.5 % probability for 39 °C and 24.5 % for 40 °C; updated afternoon observations and final official readings will determine resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$61,365End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models indicate a peak near 39 °C in Paris on August 14, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and southerly warm-air advection under clear skies and low soil moisture from the ongoing heatwave. Prior days reached or exceeded 40 °C, sustaining elevated boundary-layer temperatures, while climatological August maxima average only 25–27 °C. Limited convective inhibition and minimal cloud cover keep the risk of a 40 °C exceedance secondary, aligning with the market-implied 63.5 % probability for 39 °C and 24.5 % for 40 °C; updated afternoon observations and final official readings will determine resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$61,365End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models indicate a peak near 39 °C in Paris on August 14, driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and southerly warm-air advection under clear skies and low soil moisture from the ongoing heatwave. Prior days reached or exceeded 40 °C, sustaining elevated boundary-layer temperatures, while climatological August maxima average only 25–27 °C. Limited convective inhibition and minimal cloud cover keep the risk of a 40 °C exceedance secondary, aligning with the market-implied 63.5 % probability for 39 °C and 24.5 % for 40 °C; updated afternoon observations and final official readings will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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