Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to partly sunny skies with a 40% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms for New York City on September 4, supporting a highest temperature near 84°F. Northwest flow at 5–10 mph and moderate humidity should limit extreme heating while allowing sufficient insolation for mid-80s readings, consistent with the 80°F seasonal average high. Trader emphasis on the 84–85°F and 86–87°F bins reflects this central tendency plus typical forecast spread, as small shifts in cloud cover or timing of any convection could nudge the daily maximum by a degree or two. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will further refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 4?
84-85°F 40%
86-87°F 27%
82-83°F 20%
80-81°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
40%
86-87°F
27%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
2%
92°F or higher
1%
84-85°F 40%
86-87°F 27%
82-83°F 20%
80-81°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
73°F or below
$80 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$179 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$188 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
4%
80-81°F
$113 Vol.
5%
82-83°F
$364 Vol.
20%
84-85°F
$464 Vol.
40%
86-87°F
$404 Vol.
27%
88-89°F
$539 Vol.
4%
90-91°F
$12 Vol.
2%
92°F or higher
$77 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to partly sunny skies with a 40% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms for New York City on September 4, supporting a highest temperature near 84°F. Northwest flow at 5–10 mph and moderate humidity should limit extreme heating while allowing sufficient insolation for mid-80s readings, consistent with the 80°F seasonal average high. Trader emphasis on the 84–85°F and 86–87°F bins reflects this central tendency plus typical forecast spread, as small shifts in cloud cover or timing of any convection could nudge the daily maximum by a degree or two. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will further refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
Volume
$2,420End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to partly sunny skies with a 40% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms for New York City on September 4, supporting a highest temperature near 84°F. Northwest flow at 5–10 mph and moderate humidity should limit extreme heating while allowing sufficient insolation for mid-80s readings, consistent with the 80°F seasonal average high. Trader emphasis on the 84–85°F and 86–87°F bins reflects this central tendency plus typical forecast spread, as small shifts in cloud cover or timing of any convection could nudge the daily maximum by a degree or two. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will further refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,420End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to partly sunny skies with a 40% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms for New York City on September 4, supporting a highest temperature near 84°F. Northwest flow at 5–10 mph and moderate humidity should limit extreme heating while allowing sufficient insolation for mid-80s readings, consistent with the 80°F seasonal average high. Trader emphasis on the 84–85°F and 86–87°F bins reflects this central tendency plus typical forecast spread, as small shifts in cloud cover or timing of any convection could nudge the daily maximum by a degree or two. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will further refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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