**Persistent high pressure and strong southerly flow under mostly clear skies have positioned 106-107°F as the leading outcome with 52.5% implied probability for Dallas’s August 23 high.** Recent model runs from the National Weather Service and private guidance converge on afternoon temperatures reaching 105–108°F amid the ongoing late-summer heat wave that already produced 106°F readings earlier in the week. Low dew points and minimal cloud cover are maximizing solar heating, while climatological norms for late August support highs in this range. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, which shows limited cooling before peak heating and only a slight chance of isolated late-day convection. Updated forecasts issued this morning will be the next key input before markets close on the official observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on August 23?
Highest temperature in Dallas on August 23?
106-107°F 53%
104-105°F 29%
108-109°F 20%
110-111°F 1.5%
NEW
$23,550 Vol.
NEW
$23,550 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
101°F or below
<1%
102-103°F
1%
104-105°F
29%
106-107°F
53%
108-109°F
20%
110-111°F
2%
112-113°F
1%
114-115°F
<1%
116-117°F
<1%
118-119°F
<1%
120°F or higher
<1%
106-107°F 53%
104-105°F 29%
108-109°F 20%
110-111°F 1.5%
NEW
$23,550 Vol.
NEW
$23,550 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
101°F or below
$2,284 Vol.
<1%
102-103°F
$4,945 Vol.
1%
104-105°F
$2,126 Vol.
29%
106-107°F
$4,487 Vol.
53%
108-109°F
$3,997 Vol.
20%
110-111°F
$2,507 Vol.
2%
112-113°F
$1,545 Vol.
1%
114-115°F
$368 Vol.
<1%
116-117°F
$307 Vol.
<1%
118-119°F
$482 Vol.
<1%
120°F or higher
$500 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high pressure and strong southerly flow under mostly clear skies have positioned 106-107°F as the leading outcome with 52.5% implied probability for Dallas’s August 23 high.**
Recent model runs from the National Weather Service and private guidance converge on afternoon temperatures reaching 105–108°F amid the ongoing late-summer heat wave that already produced 106°F readings earlier in the week. Low dew points and minimal cloud cover are maximizing solar heating, while climatological norms for late August support highs in this range. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, which shows limited cooling before peak heating and only a slight chance of isolated late-day convection. Updated forecasts issued this morning will be the next key input before markets close on the official observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$23,550End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high pressure and strong southerly flow under mostly clear skies have positioned 106-107°F as the leading outcome with 52.5% implied probability for Dallas’s August 23 high.**
Recent model runs from the National Weather Service and private guidance converge on afternoon temperatures reaching 105–108°F amid the ongoing late-summer heat wave that already produced 106°F readings earlier in the week. Low dew points and minimal cloud cover are maximizing solar heating, while climatological norms for late August support highs in this range. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, which shows limited cooling before peak heating and only a slight chance of isolated late-day convection. Updated forecasts issued this morning will be the next key input before markets close on the official observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,550End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent high pressure and strong southerly flow under mostly clear skies have positioned 106-107°F as the leading outcome with 52.5% implied probability for Dallas’s August 23 high.** Recent model runs from the National Weather Service and private guidance converge on afternoon temperatures reaching 105–108°F amid the ongoing late-summer heat wave that already produced 106°F readings earlier in the week. Low dew points and minimal cloud cover are maximizing solar heating, while climatological norms for late August support highs in this range. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, which shows limited cooling before peak heating and only a slight chance of isolated late-day convection. Updated forecasts issued this morning will be the next key input before markets close on the official observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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