Persistent heatwave conditions driven by strong high pressure and southerly flow have kept overnight lows elevated across North Texas, with National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus pointing to a daily minimum temperature in the mid-80s for Dallas on August 23. This scientific consensus underpins the market's strongest implied probability for the 84-85°F bin, as recent observations from Dallas-Fort Worth show lows holding near 80-85°F amid minimal diurnal cooling and heat indices exceeding 110°F. Traders appear to weigh the stability of these atmospheric patterns against any last-hour model shifts or measurement revisions at official stations, with limited precedent for sharper drops during the current August regime.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on August 23?
98°F or higher 76%
92-93°F 65%
79°F or below 33%
80-81°F 33%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
79°F or below
33%
80-81°F
33%
82-83°F
33%
84-85°F
61%
86-87°F
33%
88-89°F
33%
90-91°F
33%
92-93°F
65%
94-95°F
30%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
76%
98°F or higher 76%
92-93°F 65%
79°F or below 33%
80-81°F 33%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
79°F or below
$0 Vol.
33%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
33%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
33%
84-85°F
$40 Vol.
61%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
33%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
33%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
33%
92-93°F
$25 Vol.
65%
94-95°F
$17 Vol.
30%
96-97°F
$301 Vol.
1%
98°F or higher
$15 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heatwave conditions driven by strong high pressure and southerly flow have kept overnight lows elevated across North Texas, with National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus pointing to a daily minimum temperature in the mid-80s for Dallas on August 23. This scientific consensus underpins the market's strongest implied probability for the 84-85°F bin, as recent observations from Dallas-Fort Worth show lows holding near 80-85°F amid minimal diurnal cooling and heat indices exceeding 110°F. Traders appear to weigh the stability of these atmospheric patterns against any last-hour model shifts or measurement revisions at official stations, with limited precedent for sharper drops during the current August regime.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$398End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heatwave conditions driven by strong high pressure and southerly flow have kept overnight lows elevated across North Texas, with National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus pointing to a daily minimum temperature in the mid-80s for Dallas on August 23. This scientific consensus underpins the market's strongest implied probability for the 84-85°F bin, as recent observations from Dallas-Fort Worth show lows holding near 80-85°F amid minimal diurnal cooling and heat indices exceeding 110°F. Traders appear to weigh the stability of these atmospheric patterns against any last-hour model shifts or measurement revisions at official stations, with limited precedent for sharper drops during the current August regime.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$398End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heatwave conditions driven by strong high pressure and southerly flow have kept overnight lows elevated across North Texas, with National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus pointing to a daily minimum temperature in the mid-80s for Dallas on August 23. This scientific consensus underpins the market's strongest implied probability for the 84-85°F bin, as recent observations from Dallas-Fort Worth show lows holding near 80-85°F amid minimal diurnal cooling and heat indices exceeding 110°F. Traders appear to weigh the stability of these atmospheric patterns against any last-hour model shifts or measurement revisions at official stations, with limited precedent for sharper drops during the current August regime.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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