Recent polling from Quaest, Datafolha, and BTG/Nexus shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) narrowing the first-round gap with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to 3–4 points, with Flávio at 33–37% and Lula at 37–40% in surveys conducted in mid-to-late September 2026. The October 4 first round is days away, and Flávio’s campaign has intensified “voto útil” outreach to consolidate support from lower-polling right-leaning candidates such as Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado. Ongoing STF proceedings involving banker Daniel Vorcaro and technical ties in runoff simulations have kept the race tight, supporting trader consensus that Flávio’s share will reach or exceed 39% once undecided voters and late consolidation are factored in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated39%+ 85%
36-39% 7.1%
<30% 1.6%
33-36% 1.2%
$71,222 Vol.
$71,222 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
<30%
2%
30-33%
1%
33-36%
1%
36-39%
7%
39%+
85%
39%+ 85%
36-39% 7.1%
<30% 1.6%
33-36% 1.2%
$71,222 Vol.
$71,222 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
<30%
$6,628 Vol.
2%
30-33%
$6,193 Vol.
1%
33-36%
$6,482 Vol.
1%
36-39%
$11,668 Vol.
7%
39%+
$40,251 Vol.
85%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Quaest, Datafolha, and BTG/Nexus shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) narrowing the first-round gap with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to 3–4 points, with Flávio at 33–37% and Lula at 37–40% in surveys conducted in mid-to-late September 2026. The October 4 first round is days away, and Flávio’s campaign has intensified “voto útil” outreach to consolidate support from lower-polling right-leaning candidates such as Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado. Ongoing STF proceedings involving banker Daniel Vorcaro and technical ties in runoff simulations have kept the race tight, supporting trader consensus that Flávio’s share will reach or exceed 39% once undecided voters and late consolidation are factored in.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Volume
$71,222End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Quaest, Datafolha, and BTG/Nexus shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) narrowing the first-round gap with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to 3–4 points, with Flávio at 33–37% and Lula at 37–40% in surveys conducted in mid-to-late September 2026. The October 4 first round is days away, and Flávio’s campaign has intensified “voto útil” outreach to consolidate support from lower-polling right-leaning candidates such as Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado. Ongoing STF proceedings involving banker Daniel Vorcaro and technical ties in runoff simulations have kept the race tight, supporting trader consensus that Flávio’s share will reach or exceed 39% once undecided voters and late consolidation are factored in.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$71,222End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Quaest, Datafolha, and BTG/Nexus shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) narrowing the first-round gap with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to 3–4 points, with Flávio at 33–37% and Lula at 37–40% in surveys conducted in mid-to-late September 2026. The October 4 first round is days away, and Flávio’s campaign has intensified “voto útil” outreach to consolidate support from lower-polling right-leaning candidates such as Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado. Ongoing STF proceedings involving banker Daniel Vorcaro and technical ties in runoff simulations have kept the race tight, supporting trader consensus that Flávio’s share will reach or exceed 39% once undecided voters and late consolidation are factored in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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