Recent Brazilian polling shows President Lula leading the first round at 37-42% with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 33-37%, leaving a competitive field for lower placements as the October 4 vote approaches. Augusto Cury has climbed to around 6% through social media momentum, positioning him as a contender for third or fourth, while Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos poll in the low-to-mid single digits and trade as the market's top options for fourth place. Romeu Zema and smaller candidates trail further back. Trader consensus reflects these standings, with uncertainty over final-week shifts from undecided voters, debate performances, or turnout among conservative and anti-establishment blocs that could reorder the mid-tier results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRonaldo Caiado 31%
Renan Santos 26%
Augusto Cury 21%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 21%
NEW
NEW
Oct 3, 2026
Ronaldo Caiado
49%
Renan Santos
24%
Augusto Cury
25%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
21%
Flavio Bolsonaro
8%
Zema
7%
Hertz Dias
6%
Samara
6%
Clariana Barao
5%
Edmilson Costa
5%
Rui Costa Pimenta
5%
Lula
5%
Pablo Marçal
2%
Ronaldo Caiado 31%
Renan Santos 26%
Augusto Cury 21%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 21%
NEW
NEW
Oct 3, 2026
Ronaldo Caiado
$78 Vol.
49%
Renan Santos
$57 Vol.
24%
Augusto Cury
$51 Vol.
25%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$28 Vol.
21%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$117 Vol.
8%
Zema
$28 Vol.
7%
Hertz Dias
$28 Vol.
6%
Samara
$28 Vol.
6%
Clariana Barao
$118 Vol.
5%
Edmilson Costa
$118 Vol.
5%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$28 Vol.
5%
Lula
$128 Vol.
5%
Pablo Marçal
$48 Vol.
2%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Brazilian polling shows President Lula leading the first round at 37-42% with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 33-37%, leaving a competitive field for lower placements as the October 4 vote approaches. Augusto Cury has climbed to around 6% through social media momentum, positioning him as a contender for third or fourth, while Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos poll in the low-to-mid single digits and trade as the market's top options for fourth place. Romeu Zema and smaller candidates trail further back. Trader consensus reflects these standings, with uncertainty over final-week shifts from undecided voters, debate performances, or turnout among conservative and anti-establishment blocs that could reorder the mid-tier results.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
Volume
$854End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Brazilian polling shows President Lula leading the first round at 37-42% with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 33-37%, leaving a competitive field for lower placements as the October 4 vote approaches. Augusto Cury has climbed to around 6% through social media momentum, positioning him as a contender for third or fourth, while Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos poll in the low-to-mid single digits and trade as the market's top options for fourth place. Romeu Zema and smaller candidates trail further back. Trader consensus reflects these standings, with uncertainty over final-week shifts from undecided voters, debate performances, or turnout among conservative and anti-establishment blocs that could reorder the mid-tier results.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$854End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Brazilian polling shows President Lula leading the first round at 37-42% with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 33-37%, leaving a competitive field for lower placements as the October 4 vote approaches. Augusto Cury has climbed to around 6% through social media momentum, positioning him as a contender for third or fourth, while Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos poll in the low-to-mid single digits and trade as the market's top options for fourth place. Romeu Zema and smaller candidates trail further back. Trader consensus reflects these standings, with uncertainty over final-week shifts from undecided voters, debate performances, or turnout among conservative and anti-establishment blocs that could reorder the mid-tier results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
43%
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
70%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
72%
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