Augusto Cury, the Avante party nominee and psychiatrist-author positioning himself as a centrist alternative to polarization between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, saw his first-round polling surge in late August to as high as 11% amid heavy social media growth and television exposure before stabilizing in the low-to-mid single digits. Mid-to-late September surveys from Datafolha, BTG/Nexus, Quaest, and others cluster between 3.5% and 7%, with most readings near 6% while one AtlasIntel poll slipped to 3.5% and third place. This recent trajectory, combined with fragmented opposition support and indications that many Cury voters remain open to switching, underpins trader consensus around the 4-6% outcome ahead of the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4-6% 38%
2-4% 23%
6%+ 21%
1-2% 8%
$12,096 Vol.
$12,096 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
<1%
4%
1-2%
8%
2-4%
23%
4-6%
38%
6%+
21%
4-6% 38%
2-4% 23%
6%+ 21%
1-2% 8%
$12,096 Vol.
$12,096 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
<1%
$120 Vol.
4%
1-2%
$643 Vol.
8%
2-4%
$1,362 Vol.
23%
4-6%
$1,924 Vol.
38%
6%+
$8,047 Vol.
21%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Augusto Cury, the Avante party nominee and psychiatrist-author positioning himself as a centrist alternative to polarization between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, saw his first-round polling surge in late August to as high as 11% amid heavy social media growth and television exposure before stabilizing in the low-to-mid single digits. Mid-to-late September surveys from Datafolha, BTG/Nexus, Quaest, and others cluster between 3.5% and 7%, with most readings near 6% while one AtlasIntel poll slipped to 3.5% and third place. This recent trajectory, combined with fragmented opposition support and indications that many Cury voters remain open to switching, underpins trader consensus around the 4-6% outcome ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ET
Volume
$12,096End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Augusto Cury, the Avante party nominee and psychiatrist-author positioning himself as a centrist alternative to polarization between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, saw his first-round polling surge in late August to as high as 11% amid heavy social media growth and television exposure before stabilizing in the low-to-mid single digits. Mid-to-late September surveys from Datafolha, BTG/Nexus, Quaest, and others cluster between 3.5% and 7%, with most readings near 6% while one AtlasIntel poll slipped to 3.5% and third place. This recent trajectory, combined with fragmented opposition support and indications that many Cury voters remain open to switching, underpins trader consensus around the 4-6% outcome ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$12,096End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Augusto Cury, the Avante party nominee and psychiatrist-author positioning himself as a centrist alternative to polarization between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, saw his first-round polling surge in late August to as high as 11% amid heavy social media growth and television exposure before stabilizing in the low-to-mid single digits. Mid-to-late September surveys from Datafolha, BTG/Nexus, Quaest, and others cluster between 3.5% and 7%, with most readings near 6% while one AtlasIntel poll slipped to 3.5% and third place. This recent trajectory, combined with fragmented opposition support and indications that many Cury voters remain open to switching, underpins trader consensus around the 4-6% outcome ahead of the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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