Brazil's Finance Ministry on September 22 cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from 2.3%, citing weaker services and industrial output that outweighed agricultural gains, while the central bank's Focus survey points to market expectations near 1.88%. Q2 GDP expanded 0.5% quarter-over-quarter—above consensus but down from 1.1% in Q1—with household consumption contracting amid high borrowing costs and elevated inflation near 4.2-4.9%, well above the 3% target. The Selic rate stands at 13.75% after gradual 25-basis-point cuts, keeping real rates among the world's highest and pressuring domestic demand. These factors position the -0.3% to -0.1% and 0.0% to 0.2% QoQ ranges as leading outcomes, reflecting expectations of further moderation before Q3 data arrives in December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated-0.3% to -0.1% 50%
0.0% to 0.2% 35%
0.3% to 0.5% 13.6%
<-0.3% 4.7%
$17,764 Vol.
$17,764 Vol.
Dec 1, 2026
<-0.3%
5%
-0.3% to -0.1%
50%
0.0% to 0.2%
35%
0.3% to 0.5%
14%
0.6% to 0.8%
4%
0.9% to 1.1%
5%
≥1.2%
<1%
-0.3% to -0.1% 50%
0.0% to 0.2% 35%
0.3% to 0.5% 13.6%
<-0.3% 4.7%
$17,764 Vol.
$17,764 Vol.
Dec 1, 2026
<-0.3%
$330 Vol.
5%
-0.3% to -0.1%
$5,756 Vol.
50%
0.0% to 0.2%
$8,267 Vol.
35%
0.3% to 0.5%
$2,443 Vol.
14%
0.6% to 0.8%
$320 Vol.
4%
0.9% to 1.1%
$340 Vol.
5%
≥1.2%
$307 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Finance Ministry on September 22 cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from 2.3%, citing weaker services and industrial output that outweighed agricultural gains, while the central bank's Focus survey points to market expectations near 1.88%. Q2 GDP expanded 0.5% quarter-over-quarter—above consensus but down from 1.1% in Q1—with household consumption contracting amid high borrowing costs and elevated inflation near 4.2-4.9%, well above the 3% target. The Selic rate stands at 13.75% after gradual 25-basis-point cuts, keeping real rates among the world's highest and pressuring domestic demand. These factors position the -0.3% to -0.1% and 0.0% to 0.2% QoQ ranges as leading outcomes, reflecting expectations of further moderation before Q3 data arrives in December.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$17,764End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Finance Ministry on September 22 cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from 2.3%, citing weaker services and industrial output that outweighed agricultural gains, while the central bank's Focus survey points to market expectations near 1.88%. Q2 GDP expanded 0.5% quarter-over-quarter—above consensus but down from 1.1% in Q1—with household consumption contracting amid high borrowing costs and elevated inflation near 4.2-4.9%, well above the 3% target. The Selic rate stands at 13.75% after gradual 25-basis-point cuts, keeping real rates among the world's highest and pressuring domestic demand. These factors position the -0.3% to -0.1% and 0.0% to 0.2% QoQ ranges as leading outcomes, reflecting expectations of further moderation before Q3 data arrives in December.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$17,764End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil's Finance Ministry on September 22 cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from 2.3%, citing weaker services and industrial output that outweighed agricultural gains, while the central bank's Focus survey points to market expectations near 1.88%. Q2 GDP expanded 0.5% quarter-over-quarter—above consensus but down from 1.1% in Q1—with household consumption contracting amid high borrowing costs and elevated inflation near 4.2-4.9%, well above the 3% target. The Selic rate stands at 13.75% after gradual 25-basis-point cuts, keeping real rates among the world's highest and pressuring domestic demand. These factors position the -0.3% to -0.1% and 0.0% to 0.2% QoQ ranges as leading outcomes, reflecting expectations of further moderation before Q3 data arrives in December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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