Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race in trader pricing at 65%, reflecting recent polling trends that show him ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas. A late-July to mid-August AtlasIntel survey placed Ciro at 49.3% versus 44.6% for the PT governor seeking reelection, with a subsequent Datafolha poll widening the gap to 52%-33%. The candidates' first direct debate on August 9 sharpened contrasts on public security and state management, while Ciro's prior tenure as governor (1991–1994) and PSDB nomination have consolidated support against lower-polling contenders including Eduardo Girão, Camilo Santana, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio. With the first round set for October 4, 2026, the implied probabilities track these shifts in voter intention and campaign dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCeará Governor Election Winner
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Ciro Gomes 65%
Elmano de Freitas 35%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Camilo Santana <1%
$128,845 Vol.
$128,845 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Ciro Gomes
65%
Elmano de Freitas
35%
Eduardo Girão
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
<1%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Ciro Gomes 65%
Elmano de Freitas 35%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Camilo Santana <1%
$128,845 Vol.
$128,845 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Ciro Gomes
$74,864 Vol.
65%
Elmano de Freitas
$22,818 Vol.
35%
Eduardo Girão
$8,771 Vol.
<1%
Camilo Santana
$6,397 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
$7,474 Vol.
<1%
Capitão Wagner
$8,522 Vol.
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race in trader pricing at 65%, reflecting recent polling trends that show him ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas. A late-July to mid-August AtlasIntel survey placed Ciro at 49.3% versus 44.6% for the PT governor seeking reelection, with a subsequent Datafolha poll widening the gap to 52%-33%. The candidates' first direct debate on August 9 sharpened contrasts on public security and state management, while Ciro's prior tenure as governor (1991–1994) and PSDB nomination have consolidated support against lower-polling contenders including Eduardo Girão, Camilo Santana, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio. With the first round set for October 4, 2026, the implied probabilities track these shifts in voter intention and campaign dynamics.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volume
$128,845End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race in trader pricing at 65%, reflecting recent polling trends that show him ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas. A late-July to mid-August AtlasIntel survey placed Ciro at 49.3% versus 44.6% for the PT governor seeking reelection, with a subsequent Datafolha poll widening the gap to 52%-33%. The candidates' first direct debate on August 9 sharpened contrasts on public security and state management, while Ciro's prior tenure as governor (1991–1994) and PSDB nomination have consolidated support against lower-polling contenders including Eduardo Girão, Camilo Santana, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio. With the first round set for October 4, 2026, the implied probabilities track these shifts in voter intention and campaign dynamics.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$128,845End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race in trader pricing at 65%, reflecting recent polling trends that show him ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas. A late-July to mid-August AtlasIntel survey placed Ciro at 49.3% versus 44.6% for the PT governor seeking reelection, with a subsequent Datafolha poll widening the gap to 52%-33%. The candidates' first direct debate on August 9 sharpened contrasts on public security and state management, while Ciro's prior tenure as governor (1991–1994) and PSDB nomination have consolidated support against lower-polling contenders including Eduardo Girão, Camilo Santana, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio. With the first round set for October 4, 2026, the implied probabilities track these shifts in voter intention and campaign dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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